Distribution margins as natural laboratories to infer species’ flowering responses to climate warming and implications for frost risk
The timing of flowering phenology in most temperate trees results from the interplay of winter chilling and spring heat. As global warming progresses, reduced chilling may gain increasing importance in regulating flowering dates, and eventually offset flowering advances in response to warmer springs. Later onset of flowering events may arise, with negative effects on plant fitness. However, delayed flowering in trees may also reduce the risk from late frosts.