September to November climate advisory for pastoral communities of Ethiopia: September 2025

The September to November (SON) rainfall season plays a vital role in sustaining pastoral livelihoods across southern and southeastern Ethiopia. Locally referred to as Hagayya in the Borana Zone, Deyr in the Somali Region, and Dada’e in the Afar Region, this season is characterized by high interannual variability influenced by global and regional climate drivers. This bulletin integrates analyses of key global predictors—El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)—to inform rainfall outlooks for the 2025 SON season. Current assessments indicate neutral ENSO and IOD conditions, with the IOD expected to shift toward a negative phase during the season. The MJO is presently positioned away from phases that enhance East African rainfall until mid-October. Consequently, a late onset and below-normal rainfall are anticipated across the Somali Region and Borana Zone. This climate outlook, together with accompanying waterpoint and rangeland advisories, aims to support early warning systems and guide decision-making among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Ethiopia’s southern and southeastern lowlands.

Dessalegn, O.; Gebre, L.; Tolcha, A.; Negussie, A.; Edao, C.; Tadesse, M.; Shibru, G.; Mamo, G.; Tsega, M.; Doyo, J.; Ejo, A.; Abdulhamid, N.; Tesfaye, L.; Workeneh, S.; Alemayehu, S.