How are climate, security, and human mobility dynamics interrelated in Pakistan?

Pakistan faces a complex and interlinked set of challenges at the intersection of climate change, conflict, and mobility, which collectively exacerbate human insecurity and state fragility. This paper identifies three key pathways through which these drivers interact, often in non-linear and overlapping ways. The first pathway illustrates how climate-induced disruptions to land, water, and food systems—especially in the Indus Basin—intensify livelihood loss and social tensions, increasing the likelihood of conflict and displacement. The second pathway explores how climate- and conflict-induced displacement, when poorly managed, can overwhelm state capacity, deepen social grievances, and trigger secondary conflict in both origin and destination areas. The third examines how climate hazards and displacement can aggravate ongoing conflicts, weaken peacebuilding processes, and fuel recruitment by armed groups. The analysis underscores the urgent need for integrated, context-sensitive approaches to climate resilience, displacement, and peacebuilding in Pakistan by drawing on examples across Sindh, Balochistan, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Khalid, S.; Savelli, A.; Vaselli, A.; Carneiro, B.; Pacillo, G.; Laderach, P.