Investments in agricultural development: quantifying the socio-political and climate-change risks
- From
-
Published on
29.07.20
- Impact Area

Scientists have created a computer model that can estimate risks for agricultural development projects that were previously undervalued or not valued at all.
Up to USD 300 billion will be needed annually to adapt to the climate crisis, including the costs of projects designed to ensure agriculture is adaptable and sustainable in the face of climate extremes. Yet experience shows that agricultural-development projects in Africa can be highly risky and uncertain. At the design stage, they often fail to account for risks in implementing a project, even though conditions are known to be subject to rapid change. Part of the challenge is that few data are available to predict a project’s impact. So, projects frequently just fly blind.
Writing in the scientific journal, PLoS ONE, a research team from Hacettepe University in Turkey and World Agroforestry (ICRAF), explained their development of a Bayesian Network-based cost-benefit model to estimate these previously unaccounted risks.
Bayesian Networks are a powerful modelling tool that can integrate qualitative and quantitative data, helping to model the world we live in versus the data we have. This makes all the difference when making decisions when dealing with uncertainty and data are scarce.
Related news
-
ICRISAT to Deliver World-Class Services as CGIAR’s Breeding Resources South Asia Hub
International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)07.07.25-
Biodiversity
-
Food security
Strategic collaboration to scale innovation and deliver harmonized, high-quality support across CGIA…
Read more -
-
Multifunctional Landscapes that reconcile food production, with ecosystem restoration and biodiversity conservation
Multifunctional Landscapes Science Program06.07.25-
Biodiversity
-
Environmental health & biodiversity
The CGIAR Multifunctional Landscapes Science Program (MFL SP) is driven by a bold vision of…
Read more -
-
How Digital Agriculture Boosts Crop Yields and Efficiency
The Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)04.07.25-
Climate adaptation & mitigation
Digital agriculture is revolutionizing how we produce food. By integrating advanced technologies suc…
Read more -