Climate change, transformative adaptation options, multiscale polycentric governance, and rural welfare in the Oum Er Rbia Basin, Morocco: empirical evaluation with policy implications

This study examines how multiscale polycentric governance (MPG) can enhance the rural welfare impacts of three transformative adaptation options (TAOs) in Morocco, using an impact pathways approach. The framework linked 22 MPG elements and 30 impact transmission domains to three TAOs—conversion to high-value tree crops, contract farming/public–private partnerships, and drip irrigation modernization— and rural welfare through a system of 30 recursive equations. The model was estimated using stakeholder perception data (on a scale of 1–10) from 178 respondents in the Oum Er Rbia River basin via simultaneous regression techniques.

Results show that shifting to high-value tree crops is the preferred option with the greatest overall impact, followed by contract farming/PPPs and drip irrigation. However, integrating all three can yield synergistic benefits. MPG factors—particularly structural institutions and private actors—strongly influence TAO performance, especially through productivity, production, and sectoral performance domains. Policies addressing key MPG variables that affect impact transition domains can generate spillover effects on rural welfare goals such as farm and labor income, food prices, and water security. Among transmission domains, productivity and production most directly enhance food and income security. Since cultivated area and cropping pattern significantly affect these domains, targeted interventions there can substantially improve livelihood resilience and climate adaptation outcomes.

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