The current El Niño event is expected to drive below average rainfall across much of Southern Africa. The rainfall deficits will likely result in below-average 2024 harvests in most countries within the region, including surplus producing South Africa and Zambia. El Niño events experienced in the past have had a devastating effect. For example, during the 2015/2016 season, El Niño led to a decline in food crop production by up to 66% in various Southern African countries, leading to a food crisis throughout the region exacerbated by the effects of the increasingly prevalent cyclones. The most recent being Idai and Kenneth, experienced in 2019 in Malawi, Mozambique, and parts of Zambia and Zimbabwe. Across the region, temperatures are projected to rise significantly. For example, the temperature in Malawi is projected to increase by 2oC on average, and rainfall will reduce by 1.8% and 5.1% in the northern and southern regions by 2050. A similar trend is projected for Zambia, with rainfall likely to decline by 3% while the temperature will increase by 1.9oC. These projections don’t forebode well for agricultural production in the region. Food security crops like maize, are constantly under threat. For example, during 7 out of the last 11 El Niño incidents in Malawi, there was an average decline of more than 20% in maize yield. These realities highlight the farmers’ limited resilience to climate shocks. More resilience-enhancing technologies and innovations are needed to give farmers a fighting chance against the adverse effects of climate change. For example, during the severe El Niño of 2015/2016 season climate resilient maize yielded twofold more than key commercial hybrids in on-farm trials.
