In the wake of overlapping global crises of the recent years—including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and escalating climate variability—fertilizer markets have been affected by unprecedented volatility. These shocks have had far-reaching implications for farm-level profitability, national food security strategies, international trade, and environmental sustainability.
The new special issue of the journal Food Policy brings together a collection of research articles examining how these disruptions have affected fertilizer markets, soil health, and agricultural productivity, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.
These themes took center stage at an IFPRI policy seminar held on June 11, 2025, to discuss the issue’s findings. Opening the event, Ruth Hill, Director of IFPRI’s Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit, said: “When fertilizer prices skyrocketed in 2022, fertilizer subsidies were the go-to policies, even though many of those supporting their implementation knew them for what they were: a blunt instrument to address a complex challenge.” She emphasized the need for “packages of simple policy solutions that address this complexity more adequately and create the right incentives for fertilizer and soil health investments.” Hill added: “We need to make sure that when the next crisis occurs there is a range of proven policy tools that can be used, and the evidence in this issue puts us on that track.”
In his remarks, Christopher Barrett, Stephen B. and Janice G. Ashley Professor of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University and Food Policy Co-Editor-in-Chief emphasized that this special issue is both important and timely because soil health sits at the heart of four major global challenges: sustaining agricultural productivity, ensuring adequate human nutrition, addressing foundational questions in agricultural development economics, and mitigating environmental and health risks. He noted that widespread soil nutrient depletion among smallholders threatens yields, while degraded soils reduce the availability of essential minerals like zinc and iron in diets. Many economic policies rely on accurate assessments of soil conditions, yet these are often poorly understood. Meanwhile, fertilizer mismanagement—overuse in some regions, underuse in others—has serious consequences for the environment, and insufficiently targeted subsidy programs contribute to growing fiscal pressure. View the full recording of the event here.
Special Issue: Main topics
In their synthesis article, four CGIAR guest editors—Kibrom Abay (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)), Jordan Chamberlin (CIMMYT), Pauline Chivenge (International Rice Research Institute), and David J. Spielman (IFPRI)—provide an overview of the issue, highlighting the complex and uneven impacts of fertilizer price volatility and the range of policy and farm-level responses observed over the 2020–2024 period.
“The 2020–2024 crises revealed vulnerabilities in global fertilizer markets,” says Kibrom Abay. “They also made it clear how urgently we need to integrate soil health and climate resilience into fertilizer policy. What’s also required is a shift from short-term interventions to strategic, evidence-based policies and innovations that support sustainable, shock-resilient agricultural systems.”
Several contributions analyze global market dynamics and price transmission. Rob Vos, Joseph Glauber, Charlotte Hebebrand, and Brendan Rice assess the broader impacts of fertilizer price increases on global demand and farm profitability. Hugo Morão examines the macroeconomic implications of fertilizer supply shocks, and Zhepeng Hu and co-authors investigate structural factors driving price spikes in China’s urea market.
Country-level analyses include new evidence from Rwanda (Spielman et al.) and Kenya (Willwerth et al.), both examining how governments have used subsidy programs and other tools to manage fertilizer affordability and market stability. Meng Xu, Xiaoxi Wang, and Kevin Chen study how agricultural production organizations in China can help reduce fertilizer use and improve efficiency. In Bangladesh, Jaweriah Hazrana and colleagues assess how subsidies and climate change are shaping fertilizer intensity and nutrient balances.
Several studies focus on farm-level decision-making in sub-Saharan Africa. These include new cross-country data on input use trends during recent crises (Amankwah et al.), household-level evidence from Ethiopia (Assefa et al.), and updated estimates of maize yield responsiveness to fertilizer in six countries (Ragasa et al.). Other studies examine how early-season temperature variation (Ahmed), prior weather shocks (Mulungu et al.), and conflict (Takeshima et al.) affect fertilizer access and use.
Several papers also explore innovations in soil health and extension. Nyondo et al. evaluate the impact of site-specific, soil-test-based advice on farmer practices in Malawi. Several articles in the issue reflect growing interest in digital tools and integrated soil fertility management strategies.
This special issue—an important effort by authors from across CGIAR and national partners—offers key insights into the effects of fertilizer market disruptions and the potential for more resilient, sustainable, and context-specific fertilizer and soil health policies.
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI’s strategic research aims to identify and analyze alternative international and country-led strategies and policies for meeting food and nutrition needs in low- and middle-income countries, with particular emphasis on poor and vulnerable groups in those countries, inclusive development, and sustainability. It is a research center of CGIAR, a worldwide partnership engaged in agricultural research for development. www.ifpri.org
Media inquiries: Evgeniya Anisimova, e.anisimova@cgiar.org, +1 (202) 627 4394
List of articles in the Special Issue
Food Policy | Fertilizer and soil health policies in the context of global supply disruptions and economic crises | ScienceDirect.com by Elsevier
Fertilizer, soil health, and economic shocks: A synthesis of recent evidence
Kibrom A. Abay, Jordan Chamberlin, Pauline Chivenge, David J. Spielman
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102892
Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability
Rob Vos, Joseph Glauber, Charlotte Hebebrand, Brendan Rice
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102790
Leveraging agricultural production organizations to reduce fertilizer use: Evidence from China
Meng Xu, Xiaoxi Wang, Kevin Chen
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102891
Global shocks and local sellers: Kenyan fertilizer markets’ response to the fuel-fertilizer-food price crisis
Hanna S. Willwerth, Colleta N. Khaemba, Teresa Serra, Hope C. Michelson, Jason Donovan
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102889
Once bitten, twice shy? Direct and indirect effects of weather shocks on fertilizer and improved seeds use
Kelvin Mulungu, Dale T. Manning, Martina Bozzola
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102852
The impact of site-specific soil-test-based extension advice on farm management in Malawi
Christone J. Nyondo, Joyce Minofu, Joseph Goeb, William J. Burke, Sieglinde Snapp
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102850
The economic consequences of fertilizer supply shocks
Hugo Morão
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102835
Deconstructing fertilizer price spikes: Evidence from Chinese urea fertilizer market
Zhepeng Hu, Lei Yan, Jinghong Yuan, Xiaoli Etienne
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102829
Input subsidies, fertilizer intensity and imbalances amidst climate change: Evidence from Bangladesh
Jaweriah Hazrana, Aaisha Nazrana, Ashok K. Mishra
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102825
Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda
David J. Spielman, Serge Mugabo, Gracie Rosenbach, Sosthene Ndikumana, Chantal Ingabire
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102823
Maize yield responsiveness and profitability of fertilizer: New survey evidence from six African countries
Catherine Ragasa, Hiroyuki Takeshima, Seth Asante, Mulubrhan Amare, Jan Duchoslav
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102815
Early growing season temperature variation and fertilizer use among smallholder farmers
Musa Hasen Ahmed
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102793
Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar
Hiroyuki Takeshima, Bart Minten, Joanna van Asselt, Isabel Brigitte Lambrecht, May Thet Htar
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102786
Smallholder farming, fertilizer use, and the polycrisis period: Cross-country evidence from longitudinal surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa
Akuffo Amankwah, Alemayehu Ambel, Sydney Gourlay, Talip Kilic, Philip Wollburg
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102885
Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia
Thomas W. Assefa, Guush Berhane, Gashaw T. Abate, Kibrom A. Abay
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102785
