Model: Sudan’s ongoing conflict could reduce economic output by half and push 1.8 million into poverty

The outbreak of war in Sudan on April 15 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) caused major disruptions in economic activities in the capital Khartoum and other areas of the country. More than six months later, the conflict continues, and its impacts on Sudan’s economy and on livelihoods are intensifying. Those disruptions, which have also limited access to health facilities and other public goods, are creating an unfolding humanitarian emergency.

How has the war affected Sudan’s economy? Assessing those impacts is a challenge because Sudan is a relatively data-scarce country, especially in wartime. So, we opted to use an economic modeling approach. Using 2021 national statistics as a baseline, we modeled the war’s effects on economy-wide indicators and on household incomes. Our results indicate that the war’s impacts on the national economy and individual sectors are severe and could push as many as 1.8 million people into poverty.