CGIAR Climate Security team pilots a new research approach for the development of Nature-based Solutions in fragile settings  

Responding to complex crises requires new systemic research approaches that help identify entry points for programmes that can simultaneously address risks of different nature while building long-term resilience of affected populations. Under CGIAR’s Food Frontiers and Security (FFS) and Climate Action Science Programmes (CASP), CGIAR’s Climate Security team has piloted a new research approach in Cabo Delgado, Northern Mozambique, combining ecosystem-based assessment with participatory conflict analysis. Commissioned by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), the study allows for the targeted development of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) in fragile settings.  

Cabo Delgado region in Northern Mozambique is experiencing a protracted humanitarian crisis. Whilst the region is characterised by years of underdevelopment and economic marginalisation, climate-related disasters and armed conflict have further worsened this situation. Since 2018, Cabo Delgado has experienced two major cyclones – Chido and Kenneth – with devastating impacts on local populations, destroying shelter, undermining livelihoods, and jeopardising access to basic commodities.  

Moreover, since 2017, the region has been subjected to a long running insurgency that has proved capable of exploiting local grievances and continues to pose a threat to security and stability. The direct and lasting impacts of armed conflict have further contributed to widespread and continued displacement, substantial socio-economic disruption, and increased tensions over natural resources critical to fishing, farming, and forest-based livelihoods.  

Compounding crises of this kind highlight the need for integrated programmatic approaches that foster environmental sustainability and secure ecosystem services, promote the availability of meaningful income generation opportunities, and provide entry points for achieving conflict prevention and peacebuilding co-benefits.  

In pursuit of such approaches, CGIAR’s Climate Security team has piloted a new research approach in Palma and Mocímboa de Praia districts, consisting of a set of complementary analytical pillars focused on mapping ecosystem services and local populations’ reliance on them, identifying entry points for NbS to address sources of environmental degradation and preserve ecosystem functionality, and conducting a granular conflict analysis to uncover opportunities to embed conflict sensitivity considerations into NbS design and implementation. Results generated by the study directly informed the enactment of two WFP-run assistance programmes, namely, the SIDA-funded SCYP-Palma and AfDB-funded CREFONS-MdP initiatives. 

Understanding local conflict dynamics  

Despite a somewhat improved security situation across the two districts in question, fieldwork conducted by peace and conflict experts from CGIAR’s Climate Security team between June and July 2025 revealed that many structural and proximate drivers of the conflict remain unresolved, making conflict systems in Palma and Mocímboa de Praia inherently more intractable, forming a challenging operational landscape for assistance providers. A fragmentary social environment characterised by a widespread lack of trust, ethno-religious and intergenerational tensions, and the erosion of traditional community leadership structures – alongside currently limited opportunities for economic recovery at scale – forms a challenging operational landscape for assistance providers. Such realities point to the need for tailored conflict risk mitigation strategies to minimise the risk of doing harm and, whenever possible, generate co-benefits for social cohesion and peace. 

In Palma district, discussions between researchers from the CGIAR Climate Security team and local community leaders identified how the discovery and exploitation of liquid natural gas (LNG) by a variety of international companies since 2012 has caused significant political economic upheaval. The rapid emergence of new sources of economic opportunity – and the relative ability or inability of various local elites to secure said opportunities for community members – has disrupted traditional hierarchies and social networks, with younger community members increasingly losing faith in established leadership structures. These factors form key motivating factors for non-state armed groups (NSAG) recruitment.  

Compensation and employment schemes implemented by international companies have moreover engendered new spatially determined divisions across the district, with communities located closer to LNG extraction sites more able to access such opportunities than inland communities. Exclusionary coastal zones established by LNG extraction actors have moreover disrupted fishery-based livelihoods, increasingly forcing those engaged in fishing to compete with one another other and foreign fishermen over access to shrinking territories and contributing to unsustainable overfishing.   

In Mocímboa de Praia district, the historical epicentre of the insurgency, religious and community leaders engaged in the research highlighted the role of ethno-religious polarisation and marginalisation remain an important structural driver of conflict. This has contributed to perceived differential experiences of conflict as well as the ability of access humanitarian assistance.  

The district’s social topography – characterised by the presence of two main ethnic groups, the Muslim Mwani and the Christian Maconde – remains characterised by inter-communal, inter-generational, and institutional distrust. Insecurity faced by inland agricultural communities (predominantly Maconde) when seeking to access arable lands due to NSAG activity has additionally engendered something of a livelihood transition towards coastal zones and fishery-based livelihoods (predominantly Mwani) and engendered the emergence of new tensions over access to and usage of marine coastal areas, forming an additional consideration for assistance providers seeking to implement conflict-sensitive livelihood support activities. 

Mapping ecosystem services and environmental landscapes  

Cabo Delgado province is characterised by a diverse set of ecological landscapes, ranging from rich coastal and marine ecosystems to dry forests, riverine corridors, and wetlands. This diversity supports a wide range of ecosystem services that are deeply intertwined with community livelihoods.  

Household surveys conducted across 10 communities in Palma and Mocímboa de Praia districts demonstrated the various ways through which communities in Cabo Delgado rely on ecosystem services for their wellbeing and resilience, including wild foods (fruits and meat) and forest products (particularly wood for construction, charcoal production, and energy use), as well as on agriculture, fishing, and freshwater resources.  

To understand how these services may change in the future, a scenario analysis explored business-as-usual, conservation-oriented, and development-oriented development pathways. This analysis highlighted both opportunities and trade-offs for key indicators of ecosystem health, such as land use and land cover, annual and seasonal water availability, sediment delivery, carbon storage and sequestration, and pollination potential.  

Building on these insights, the project identified a portfolio of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) to mitigate threats to ecosystem services while supporting social cohesion and community resilience, including mangrove and coastal restoration, agroforestry and native tree integration, sustainable charcoal production, community water catchment and treatment systems, and beekeeping to enhance livelihoods. 

Implemented through the SCYP-Palma and CREFONS-MdP programmes, these interventions represent practical, community-driven pathways to protect Cabo Delgado’s natural capital while advancing climate resilience, peacebuilding, and sustainable development. 

Promoting conflict sensitive planning and implementation practices 

After data collection and analysis, CGIAR’s Climate Security team worked closely with WFP Mozambique to organise several dissemination sessions   

 and several of its national and local stakeholders to communicate research outcomes and ensure their effective translation into programmatic outputs. Several dissemination sessions were organised to present the findings from both the conflict analysis and ecosystem services assessment with relevant WFP Mozambique programme staff in both Maputo and Pemba offices, UN cooperation and implementation partners, as well as national and district government stakeholders. These exercises also included the provision of a number of tailored recommendations for the development of NBS that reflect local realities in both Palma and Mocímboa de Praia districts.  

A similarly crucial activity for mainstreaming conflict-sensitive planning and implementation strategies revolved around CGIAR and its partners additionally delivered a dedicated conflict sensitivity training workshop in September 2025 for WFP Mozambique and cooperation partner staff. This 3-day engagement, delivered in collaboration with MASC Foundation and Peaceful for Change Initiative, familiarised WFP programme and operational staff with several key conflict sensitivity planning tools and approaches expected to aid in the identification of interactions between programmatic activities and the conflict context, such as the Conflict Sensitivity Interaction Typology and the Conflict Sensitivity Matrix.  

Participants from field and country offices were thus trained on how to identify conflict sensitivity risks and develop appropriate adaptations and monitoring strategies, leaving staff better capacitated to implement appropriate conflict risk mitigation strategies in the future. This training therefore represented an important milestone for mainstreaming conflict-sensitive practices within WFP Mozambique’s resilience building efforts.   

Looking ahead to Cabo Delgado’s recovery  

CGIAR stands ready to continue its integrated research activities in Cabo Delgado and Mozambique more broadly. By continuing to work with established partners, the CGIAR Climate Security team aims to leverage its complementary research capacities for climate resilience and ecosystem health, conflict analysis, and environmental peacebuilding.  

Authors: Frans Schapendonk, Giulia Caroli, Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT. Photo Credit: CIAT/NeilPalmer