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06

Navigating the Future by Aligning Science and Decision-Making for a More Certain Future

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In 2025, policymakers face escalating risks from conflicts, climate change, and technological disruptions. CGIAR’s foresight analysis aids smarter decisions by predicting trends and integrating research on food security, climate adaptation, and sustainable agriculture.

Priorities include disaster resilience, AI and advanced breeding technologies, and closing financing gaps for sustainable transitions. Equitable access to technology, climate-smart investments, and policy reforms are crucial, especially for low- and middle-income countries. As urbanization strains food systems, holistic governance and global collaboration are essential.

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I would be so happy if donors could be more flexible and bring the science and development community together to create good projects on the ground. It is a world that is often separated, and that makes it hard.”

Mathias Mogge
Secretary General, Welthungerhilfe (WHH)

Recommendations
for Decision-Makers

Recommendations for decision-makers

  • Foresight analysis is critical to support decision-makers who require forward-looking and robust scientific evidence about future challenges to help them navigate uncertainty effectively.
  • Climate adaptation and disaster preparedness must be at the core of food security strategies and research and development efforts, and investments need to step up to keep pace with the changing environment.
  • Technological innovation must be harnessed to accelerate research, better inform decision-making, and be accessible and affordable to smallholders and small- and medium-sized agrifood enterprises to drive speedier progress toward sustainable agricultural development outcomes. For example, advanced breeding methods should be immediately adopted in low- and middle-income countries.
  • Financing a just transition to sustainable agrifood systems scaling up public and private investment and international cooperation to align financial incentives and ensure that funding mechanisms benefit both people and the planet.
  • Rapid urbanization and population growth require inclusive policies that promote equity and food security and that better connect urban centers with food production systems.

Overview

The world in 2025 faces a complex and evolving set of risks. Geopolitical conflicts, climate change, technological disruption, economic volatility, and social inequalities are reshaping decision-making processes. The Global Risks Report 2025 highlights that the world’s major threats in the immediate future include state-based conflicts and extreme weather. In the longer term, concerns shift towards risks such as natural resource depletion and challenges related to artificial intelligence.

Decision-makers at every level and across every sector already make complex choices, and now they must predict, navigate, and respond to increasingly fast-paced and erratic shifts. Some of these, such as conflict and disaster relief, require short-term emergency responses. Some require longer-term planning and action without concrete knowledge of how emerging and evolving risks—such as rising global temperatures—may manifest. Some require further understanding of advancing technologies to leverage the opportunities they present and to contain the risks they pose. The growing prevalence of disinformation further complicates this task, making it harder to identify trusted sources for reliable insights and evidence.

Effective decision-making processes in food systems require collaboration across sectors, stakeholders, and governance structures. These processes evolve as contexts shift. However, policies affecting these systems are often made without fully considering their wide-ranging and interconnected impacts (Schneider et al., 2025).

We cannot hope to provide all the answers. Instead, we highlight emerging opportunities and challenges facing both decision-makers and scientists that have repeatedly been voiced as key issues in our discussions on food systems and foresight analysis. We also give examples of some promising research areas that, with more investment and development, could hold answers. These are designed to provoke discussion and guide the positioning of our research to better serve decision-makers, identify priority ‘deep dive’ focus areas for future CGIAR Flagship Reports, and address science gaps highlighted during the consultation such as the need for improved trade-off and monitoring tools that help decision-makers interpret data, assess the impact of past choices, and make more informed decisions amid competing priorities for the future.

Foresight Analysis as the Foundation for Smarter Decisions

In 2025, CGIAR launched its new research portfolio designed to align its work better to meet both current and future challenges identified. One of the ways we were able to make informed decisions during this process was through CGIAR foresight analysis (Figure 24) and foundational work pertaining to megatrends conducted by the Independent Science Development Council (ISDC) in anticipation of the new CGIAR portfolio’s release (Figure 25).

Foresight analysis is a way of predicting possible trends, risks, and opportunities and exploring different possible futures based on current data, trends, and expert opinions to identify what may be the most effective. For example, it considers which combinations of policies, institutions, investments, and technologies are most effective in enabling food system actors to contribute to the inclusive, equitable, and sustainable transformation of food systems and economies. CGIAR relies on this kind of analysis to inform decisions on our critical research areas, such as climate adaptation, food and nutrition security, and sustainable land use. These insights have been used to develop economic modeling tools, decision-making briefs, and knowledge-sharing platforms to help decision-makers consider future scenarios.

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Figure 24. Browse the CGIAR Foresight Initiative series: What do we know about the future of food systems?
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Figure 25. Nine interconnected anthropogenic megatrends and CGIAR Impact Areas from ISDCs ‘Responding to Emerging Megatrends’ Discussion Paper

Building Resilience Against Natural and Human-Driven Disasters

Disasters, whether caused by extreme weather, pandemics, conflicts, or natural events like earthquakes, disrupt food systems, exacerbate poverty, and threaten global stability. In the past 30 years, agricultural losses due to disasters have totaled an estimated USD 3.8 trillion (FAO, 2023), with low- and middle-income countries bearing the heaviest burden.

Science can help make the future less uncertain by closing the gap between available knowledge and policy action to strengthen disaster preparedness and effective responses. Strengthening climate modeling capabilities, improving early warning systems, and scaling up investment in resilient agricultural practices are urgent priorities, as are data-driven approaches that can help governments and international organizations predict risks more accurately and deploy targeted interventions. CGIAR is helping build this urgent evidence base through its Food Frontiers and Security Program.

The pace of scientific progress remains insufficient relative to the urgency of the evolving climate crisis. While strides have been made in enhancing agricultural efficiency, as shown in the first chapters of this report, there remains much uncertainty about how it will affect different regions in scale and intensity. This means that decision-makers need to plan for a range of scenarios and strike a balance between flexibility and preparedness without knowing the full extent of future risks. A substantial investment gap persists in implementing climate policies, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, which limits their ability to transition toward more resilient food systems.

How science is informing emergency assistance efforts

Disasters drive the forced displacement of populations, estimated as exceeding 110 million people (UNHCR). While difficult to measure in real terms how poverty and food insecurity affect these populations as they often sit outside national data collection mechanisms, specific initiatives to improve data collection to better inform decision-making are being established such as the World Bank-UNHCR Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement.

There is also a growing body of evidence on how to alleviate food security in displaced populations, including through integrating diverse, nutritious foods into emergency health care and humanitarian assistance, sustainably financing and building resilient business models around the local production of nutritious food products in refugee settings, and including women, refugees, and host communities as co-designers and co-implementers in key projects to address health, nutrition, and livelihoods (World Economic Forum, 2024).

CGIAR is teaming up with emergency assistance providers such as the World Food Programme (WFP) to support refugees and host communities, for example, working to strengthen the resilience of both Syrian refugees and their Jordanian hosts against water scarcity, droughts, and flash floods by investigate which financing options could best enable them to invest in climate-resilient, sustainable livelihoods.

The result is a series of recommendations for how WFP, together with national and microfinance institutions, could best design financing products to meet the interests and needs of agricultural communities in northern Jordan.

Leveraging Advanced Technologies for Food Systems Transformation

The rapid evolution of technology offers new tools to enhance food production, optimize resource use, and strengthen resilience. However, equitable access and public trust remain key challenges.

Advanced breeding techniques like genomic selection (to associate the genetics of an individual with traits) are an example of an evolving technology that accelerates the development of improved crops, livestock, and aquatic species. Several examples have already been showcased in this report of how advanced breeding methods have resulted in cost-effective and more speedily available options for farmers to help them respond to environmental challenges such as water scarcity or to fill specific nutritional gaps in vulnerable populations. Yet ensuring equitable access to these technologies, particularly for smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries, remains a challenge.

Advanced breeding methods require substantial investments in facilities and operational costs, but evidence shows that there is no economic benefit to postponing the use of these technologies. The size of the benefit in terms of food and nutrition security of using these methods outweighs the investment cost in only a few years. These methods should be immediately applied to breeding practices in low- and middle-income countries (Lenaerts et al., 2019).

The rapid evolution of Artificial Intelligence (AI), which enables large-scale data analysis and predictive decision-making, is a game-changer for decision-makers at all levels. It is becoming easier, quicker, and cheaper to collect and share information and data that can inform decisions at different levels. A farmer in a remote field may now access AI-powered extension services through their phone even without an internet connection. Local decision-makers can see instant AI analysis of information gathered from drones and satellites such as farmland to make real-time data-driven choices, such as optimizing irrigation, and better predicting potential yield losses before they happen. When these data are aggregated into big data sets, it can support national, regional, or even global decision-makers, particularly when integrated into open-access geospatial data initiatives. Data from Earth Observation Satellites is also becoming a useful tool for carrying out impact assessments of agriculture and natural resource management (Figure 26).

As concerns over the authenticity of source materials grow, particularly as the spread of disinformation, AI should not be seen as a stand-alone source of advice but as a tool that complements credible scientific research, traditional knowledge, and in-person agricultural advisory services. Governments also need to invest in infrastructure that boosts connection speed and reliability and ensures equitable access to new technologies. Capacity-building programs—such as AI literacy training for decision-makers, scientists, and farming communities—can improve technology adoption. Online courses, video tutorials, and chat-based apps can further enhance accessibility, particularly for rural communities.

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Figure 26. Remote Sensing for Impact Evaluation of Agriculture and Natural Resource Management Research: Guidelines for Use

Financing a Just and Sustainable Transition

Financing a global and just transition toward sustainable food systems—where the benefits of shifting to a low-carbon economy are shared and those that will lose economically are supported—presents both significant opportunities and notable constraints. A key opportunity is diversifying financing sources. By mobilizing funds from domestic public spending, international development financing, and private-sector investments, it is possible to drive large-scale transformation. The UN Food Systems Hub highlights the importance of blending these financial streams to ensure long-term sustainability (UN Food Systems Hub).

Late in 2024, at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) CGIAR, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) proposed ways to achieve a just transition to safeguard livelihoods, particularly for vulnerable groups, while advancing low-emission, climate-resilient practices in food systems. These actionable steps included:

  • Aligning national policies to support food workers
  • Increasing research and development for sustainable technologies
  • Providing income transition support for small-scale producers
  • Building local capacities and fostering partnerships

Another crucial avenue is the integration of climate finance into food system reforms. An estimated USD 350 billion per year is required to transform food systems in alignment with climate goals and nature conservation (Morgan Stanley). Public-private partnerships offer promising solutions.

Investing in technological innovations further strengthens the financial case for transition. AI, digital tools, and precision farming—using technology to monitor and optimize farming practices for better efficiency and sustainability—offer new avenues for investment and efficiency gains. Additionally, policy reforms and financial incentives play a fundamental role, for example, implementing targeted subsidies for eco-friendly farming and penalties for unsustainable practices can effectively redirect financial flows, as emphasized in a report by Just Rural Transition and CGIAR with the World Bank on repurposing agricultural policies. Despite these opportunities, significant constraints persist. One of the most pressing issues is the lack of sufficient climate finance for small-scale producers. In 2019-2020, when tracked across all sectors, it represented just 0.8% of total climate finance and 19% of climate flows to food systems as a whole (USD 28.5 billion) (Figure 27).

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Figure 27. Climate finance to small-scale agrifood systems, agrifood systems, and all sectors in 2019-2020 (USD billions)

Regulatory and market risks also create financial uncertainty, discouraging potential investors from committing to food systems transitions. Investors crave clarity and consistency. Changing government policies, fluctuating commodity prices, and shifts in consumer demand all contribute to instability (Reuters). Moreover, the high initial capital required for transitioning to sustainable practices presents another challenge, particularly for resource-constrained farmers and developing economies. Strengthening financial inclusion for smallholder farmers is critical to ensure they can access credit and insurance mechanisms to manage risks such as losses from drought and to support transitions to more sustainable practices. Research indicates that learning lessons from past initiatives in the space is particularly important (Lung, 2021).

Finally, competing financial priorities at a global level can divert funds away from food system transformation. Rising defense budgets, public health emergencies, and economic downturns often result in reduced investments in agriculture and sustainability.

Addressing constraints while leveraging available opportunities will require sustained collaboration among governments, financial institutions, businesses, and civil society. By aligning policies, incentives, and investments, it is possible to create a more equitable, resilient, and sustainable global food system.

Driving food system innovation through agrifood technology for impact

Innovation is no longer solely driven by private corporations. Universities, governments, public-private partnerships, third-sector organizations, and research centers now play a role in co-creating and scaling new solutions. The agricultural technology (ag-tech) ecosystem and its startups are emerging as agents of change in developing and deploying innovative solutions. These organizations are leveraging their agility and ability to attract capital in a supportive investment market, which in 2024 saw early-stage deal sizes double year-on-year and a projected global market value of almost USD 49 billion by 2030.

CGIAR is seizing this opportunity through its AgriTech 4 Impact (A4IP) initiative that rethinks the business-as-usual paradigm by adopting innovative partnership models to bridge research products with the greatest potential from lab to market.

A4IP leverages CGIAR’s legacy in research and innovation to co-design, accelerate, and de-risk the development and deployment of science-based, technology-driven solutions for sustainable agriculture and climate action. It transforms underutilized research into valuable, practical, and commercially viable solutions. It fosters groundbreaking ideas by supporting early-stage research, reducing risks, funding talented teams to develop innovative solutions, and nurturing an entrepreneurial mindset among scientists through training, mentorship, and networking opportunities.

In 2024, A4IP implemented or partnered in nine innovation challenges and accelerator projects, including AgriTech4Egypt, AgriTech4Kenya, and CircularEconomy4Colombia. These supported the development of over 110 demand-driven innovations that are context-specific, affordable, and accessible to farmers and value chain actors. These initiatives provided business training, mentorship, technical assistance, networking opportunities, pilot testing, product validation on the ground, and funding.

The newly launched Research and Market Pathways project is enabling 100+ scientists across CGIAR with the skills and support needed to translate their scientific discoveries into market-viable solutions and connect them with investors and industry.

Demographic Shifts and Urbanization

The global population is projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, placing additional strain on already fragile food systems. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to experience the most rapid population growth, exacerbating challenges related to food security, economic stability, and climate resilience. Poverty remains a fundamental barrier to accessing healthy food, healthcare, and education, particularly in low-income regions. However, as conflicts, disasters, migration, and climate change dominate global discourse, poverty as a core challenge is increasingly overlooked (Horton, 2024). A recent independent evaluation of CGIAR Science highlighted the need to expand research on consumer demand, food environments, food safety, food loss and waste, and better integration of supply and demand across value chains and presents 35 evidence-based recommendations and 10 improvement areas.

Understanding consumer diets and food environments can identify nutrition innovations

The quality of diets is a primary driver of health and economic outcomes globally. Traditionally, agriculture-nutrition research focused on the connections between food production and food consumption, identifying the links between production diversity and dietary diversity.

With more people purchasing rather than producing their food, research on diets and nutrition must take a food systems approach. CGIAR research programs illuminate the complex interactions within food systems by analyzing what consumers eat, why they choose certain foods, where those foods originate, and how food environments—including social, cultural, physical, political, and economic factors—shape their choices. This approach also examines food markets and the connections between markets and farming communities to provide a comprehensive understanding of food systems. If research to improve nutrition is approached from a full systems viewpoint scientists can identify innovations that can bring more healthy foods to low-income people, while also benefiting farmers and value chain players to deliver multiple wins.

Recognizing the need for coordinated change to transform diets, the CGIAR’s research on fruit and vegetables for sustainable healthy diets starts with understanding dietary patterns and working back across the food system to address barriers to increasing fruit and vegetable consumption. This end-to-end approach is being evaluated in Tanzania, Sri Lanka, the Philippines and Benin. Results will inform the development of programs and policies that support healthy diets in these and other countries.

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face particular difficulties recovering from multiple cascading crises due to limited financial capacity (DI, 2023). The pandemic caused the largest rise in between-country income inequalities in three decades and contributed to the unequal distribution of wealth (DI, 2023; UN DESA, 2023). Climate change is expected to widen these gaps further, disproportionately affecting LMICs despite their minimal contribution to global emissions. Their geo-climatic conditions, high dependence on natural resources, vulnerability to rising food and energy prices, and limited adaptive capacity make them particularly susceptible to the impacts of a changing climate (DI, 2023).

By 2050, 68% of the world’s population is expected to live in urban areas, increasing the urgency for decision-makers to ensure urban populations have access to affordable, diverse, and nutritious foods. While urbanization can drive economic growth and innovation, it also presents challenges such as food deserts—areas where access to affordable, nutritious food is limited—alongside declining diet quality and increased pressure on natural resources.

Poverty remains a fundamental barrier to accessing healthy foods, healthcare, and education, especially in low-income regions, yet is slipping from global discourse as a fundamental challenge, as conflicts, disasters, migration, and climate change take the headlines. And some argue that amidst all of this, we have forgotten poverty (Horton 2024).

Addressing these issues requires a holistic approach to food system governance. Policies must promote just transitions through equitable access to nutritious food, sustainable agricultural practices, and the creation of economic opportunities, safety nets, jobs, and social protections, including in the food sector. At the same time, international collaboration and improved data collection are crucial to tackling the structural challenges of poverty, inequality, and food and nutrition insecurity in both urban and rural contexts. Ensuring that food systems are resilient, inclusive, and sustainable will require coordinated efforts at all levels, from local governance to global policymaking.

Global Accelerator on Jobs and Social Protection for Just Transitions

In 2015, countries committed to securing the rights and well-being of all people on a healthy, thriving planet by adopting the 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Yet, half of the world’s population lacks social protection, and more than half of all workers are in low-income, insecure jobs.

Launched in September 2021 by the UN Secretary-General, the Global Accelerator on Jobs and Social Protection for Just Transitions represents the UN system’s collective response to multiple challenges threatening development progress.

The initiative aims to accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and support the creation of decent jobs, primarily in the green, digital, and care economies, while expanding social protection to people who are excluded.

CGIAR Action-Oriented Research

CGIAR is an action-oriented research organization working strategically to address the most acute challenges related to food production in low- and middle-income countries. Partnerships with institutions in those countries have been at the core of all CGIAR activities for over 50 years. New CGIAR research, developed with partners, reflects the priorities of stakeholders at local, regional, and global levels. This is a strategic shift to being even more responsive to national partners’ needs and priorities. All CGIAR centers (Figure 3) have resources and experts that can help decision-makers unpack complexities and address challenges in food systems.

Despite extensive research efforts, mismatches persist between studies and projects conceived in high-income countries and the realities of LMICs. As a result, research often focuses on assumed problems rather than actual challenges on the ground. (Ahmed et al. 2023). A recent independent evaluation of CGIAR science stressed the need to invest in local capacity development to help counter this challenge.

There is also considerable evidence indicating that scientists from high-income countries continue to dominate the authorship of research publications and there continue to be inequalities in research partnerships.

Not all marine fisheries are equal

Despite a surge in research on how marine fisheries interact with climate change—including ocean temperatures, currents, acidification, fish distribution, and productivity—little focuses on marine fisheries in low-income countries. As a result, there is a low understanding of their carbon emissions (Xu, et al., 2024). To address this gap, efforts should focus on developing stable research partnerships in LMICs, balancing collaborations, and improving data access and quality. New research can leverage the growing portfolio of research led by institutions from high-income countries to address challenges relevant to small-scale fisheries in low- and middle-income countries.

Health inequality research misses the global picture

The global human health evidence base, particularly research with a focus on health inequalities (the differences in the health status between and within societies), has grown exponentially. However, authorship remains dominated by high-income countries, and research gaps in low-income countries persist and, in some cases, are widening (Cash-Gibson, et al., 2018). Addressing the root causes of these research disparities is essential to achieving global health equity.

What Can You Do?

The road ahead is uncertain and challenging, but there is reason for hope. New opportunities are emerging worldwide to tackle these challenges, with scientific research playing a key role, as shown in this report. More and more, climate policies and investments are focusing on agriculture, food systems, land restoration, and water management. At the same time, new data, modeling systems, guidelines, and decision-making frameworks are being created to help drive innovation and support better decision-making. For example, the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis Data and Modelling System is CGIAR’s primary tool for forward-looking, economy-wide, country-level analysis that works as a simulation laboratory for experimenting with policies, investments, or economic shocks. Another key initiative is the Foresight Series, which includes a Framework for Monitoring More Responsible Innovation (Figure 28).

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Figure 28. A framework for accelerating more responsible innovation that identifies ten accelerators and enablers for food systems innovation
Source: Mason-D’Croz et al. (2023), adapted from Herrero et al. (2020, 2021).

The momentum spurred by the United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS)—a global gathering in 2021 to help deliver the Sustainable Development Goals—continues at the country level. CGIAR has helped influence these processes and many others, including those around climate change, biodiversity, water, and poverty, and is increasingly involved in their implementation. Regional opportunities such as the African Fertilizer and Soil Health Summit also abound. In addition, new technologies, including digital tools and methods, have shortened innovation cycles (e.g. for crop varieties) and learning cycles (e.g. real-time monitoring of natural resources and markets), thereby contributing more timely evidence to food system decision-makers.

We need bold, coordinated action. Without it, the pace of change will continue to outstrip the world’s ability to respond, jeopardizing global food and nutrition security. Decision-makers need to align science and policy to build resilient, sustainable, and equitable food systems for future generations.

CGIAR and partners have the expertise, knowledge, and global public goods to help.

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