Stochastic impact evaluation of an irrigation development intervention in Northern Ethiopia

Irrigation plays a significant role in achieving food and nutrition security in dry regions. However, detailed ex-ante appraisals of irrigation development investments are required to efficiently allocate resources and optimize returns on investment. Due to the inherent system complexity and uncertain consequences of irrigation development interventions coupled with limited data availability, deterministic cost-benefit analysis can be ineffective in guiding formal decision-making. Stochastic Impact Evaluation (SIE) helps to overcome the challenges of evaluating investments in such contexts. In this paper, we applied SIE to assess the viability of an irrigation dam construction project in northern Ethiopia.