Ukraine’s grain exports (The World) 

The World (International Public Radio) produced a radio interview with Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at IFPRI. Glauber discusses how Ukraine’s farmers have taken a major hit from the war. In the first few months of the war, we saw increases. “Since the grain initiative agreement started, prices have been pretty flat essentially prewar levels but remember that these levels are fifty percent higher than they were a year ago.” Glauber explains that grain has been going to a variety of places: to countries in the Middle East and North Africa, and some has gone to Europe, in particular corn.  A small part goes to the World Food Programme. One of the problems, even before Russia suspended its participation was that ships were leaving Ukraine, but getting stuck for days in Turkey where they are inspected. The wait time in Turkey increased considerably, as much as sixteen days.”

In terms of both planting and harvesting this year, the war has had a significant impact. Glauber says, “Unfortunately the agricultural sector has borne a large brunt of the war. Crops, particularly wheat harvested this year went directly into storage bins already pretty full.” He adds, “Ukraine farmers have a strong disincentive to plant and already we see the wheat plantings this fall which would be harvested next year, down thirty percent.” Glauber believes that countries like the United States expected prices to start coming down, pre-war. “Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened. It is almost as if Ukraine has had back-to-back droughts for two years and now, potentially, with the disruption, it could mean markets will remain tight going into 2023, and likely through 2023.”

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