Tensions in the Black Sea and regional droughts spark rising global wheat prices
After peaking in early 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wheat prices have fallen over most of the past four years
- commodity prices
- conflicts
- food prices
By Joseph GlauberAugust 3, 2026
Key takeaways
- Wheat prices have climbed sharply in recent weeks as drought and Black Sea shipping disruptions tighten global supplies.
- Global wheat production is expected to decline among major exporters, reducing available stocks and export volumes.
- Market volatility is increasing as weather risks, conflict, and trade disruptions create greater uncertainty for wheat markets.
After peaking in early 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wheat prices have fallen over most of the past four years. This year’s U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent energy and fertilizer prices soaring but had a relatively small impact on grain prices—grain exports were relatively unaffected, and fertilizer impacts are not likely to affect grain production for several months.
But now, wheat prices are on the rise again. Widespread drought has affected crop conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, and increased tensions in the Black Sea are again threatening wheat supplies. As a result, wheat prices have increased almost 25% above their January 2026 levels, reaching their highest levels in two years