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Signaling, screening, or sunk costs? Experimental evidence on how prices affect agricultural technology adoption in East Africa

By Bjorn Van Campenhout, Gashaw Abate, Liesbeth Colen, and Berber Kramer November 20, 2025 Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa face growing pressure to produce more on less land while contending with worsening impacts of climate change. The need for sustainable intensification has rekindled calls for a “Green Revolution” in the region, centered on the widespread adoption of modern inputs such as hybrid seeds and

Signaling, screening, or sunk costs? Experimental evidence on how prices affect agricultural technology adoption in East Africa

By Bjorn Van Campenhout, Gashaw Abate, Liesbeth Colen, and Berber Kramer

Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa face growing pressure to produce more on less land while contending with worsening impacts of climate change. The need for sustainable intensification has rekindled calls for a “Green Revolution” in the region, centered on the widespread adoption of modern inputs such as hybrid seeds and inorganic fertilizers. But introducing new agricultural technologies is not just a matter of making such inputs available; it also requires convincing farmers to try them.

One common strategy to promote adoption is the distribution of free (or subsidized) starter packs—for example, small quantities of seed and/or fertilizers given to farmers as testers. These trial packs are designed to reduce the risk of experimentation, kick-start investment in improved technologies, and stimulate peer learning. In theory, farmers who successfully try out a new variety may go on to purchase it again, and their neighbors might follow suit. Public agencies also view trial packs as a tool to increase turnover in seed markets and diversify the genetic base of crops.

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