Model: Impacts of the COVID-19-driven rise in global rice prices on consumers in Papua New Guinea

BY EMILY SCHMIDT AND PAUL DOROSH

In general, the COVID-19 pandemic has had only modest impacts on food availability but greater consequences for food affordability. During the food price crisis of 2007-8, rice prices increased dramatically in rice-importing countries such as Papua New Guinea (PNG) when rice-exporting countries imposed export bans. In this post, Emily Schmidt and Paul Dorosh model different rice supply and demand scenarios for rural and urban households in PNG during the pandemic, finding a smaller affordability effect than the previous crisis—but that household income losses have compounded more modest price increases. They propose actions to increase the security of food staples for households during crises without distorting food markets and trade over the longer term.—John McDermott, series co-editor and Director, CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH).

Photo credit: Glen Hayoge