The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production
While the global food system has largely adjusted to the trade disruptions in agricultural commodities and fertilizers in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, the current conflict in the Middle East introduces a new set of challenges at a time when markets and supply chains remain vulnerable to geopolitical shocks
- fertilizers
- prices
- conflicts
- food prices
By Charlotte Hebebrand, Joseph Glauber, Rob Vos, and Brendan RiceApril 1, 2026
Key takeaways
•Shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have already driven sharp increases in fertilizer and energy prices.
•Higher prices could reduce fertilizer use and lower crop yields if the disruption persists, posing significant food security risks.
•Most vulnerable are countries heavily dependent on Persian Gulf fertilizer and natural gas—especially in Africa and South Asia.
•The fertilizer sector remains very vulnerable to future supply and trade shocks, and efforts to boost resilience should be stepped up.
While the global food system has largely adjusted to the trade disruptions in agricultural commodities and fertilizers in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, the current conflict in the Middle East introduces a new set of challenges at a time when markets and supply chains remain vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. A particularly dangerous problem is the potential for a sustained, major disruption in fertilizer supplies that would threaten global agriculture production and food security.
In 2024, up to 30% of global fertilizer trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz from the Persian Gulf to export markets around the world, as well as an estimated 20% of liquified natural gas (LNG), a key fertilizer feedstock, and 27% of globally traded oil. Now, with Iran limiting shipping through this critical maritime corridor in response to attacks by the United States and Israel, prices have risen sharply across energy and fertilizer markets. Meanwhile, attacks by both sides in the conflict have damaged production sites and export hubs including Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar (LNG) and Iran’s Kharg Island (oil). Additional attacks would further reduce supplies.
What are the likely impacts of Iran war on global fertilizer production and trade, given the central role of these inputs in agricultural productivity and food security?
We focus here on two of the three primary fertilizer nutrients, nitrogen and phosphate (potash is the third), since the Persian Gulf region is a big production hub for both. We concentrate on exports from Gulf countries but note that fertilizers are also produced in other Middle East countries potentially at risk in the conflict. We also assess potential impacts on agricultural production and food prices, outline options for mitigating this shock to the fertilizer value chain, and examine options to build resilience to future shocks.