The Iran war: Potential food security impacts
The attack on Iran by U.S. and Israeli forces and Iranian retaliation against U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf have roiled energy markets by disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—the Gulf’s only sea passage to the open ocean.
- conflict
- energy prices
- Iran
- fertilizer
- trade
By Joseph GlauberMarch 6, 2026
The attack on Iran by U.S. and Israeli forces and Iranian retaliation against U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf have roiled energy markets by disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—the Gulf’s only sea passage to the open ocean. About 27% of the world’s oil exports, 20% of global liquified natural gas (LNG) exports, and 20%-30% of global fertilizer exports, including urea, ammonia, phosphates, and sulfur, pass through the Strait. Drone and rocket strikes on tankers pose ongoing danger and have made maritime insurance costs prohibitive in the region, resulting in a more than 70% decline in shipping through the Strait since the conflict began (Figure 1). A prolonged conflict would likely choke global sea trade with the Persian Gulf region, raising the costs of energy and fertilizer prices globally, directly threatening food security in Gulf countries (which depend on imports of grains, oilseeds, and vegetable oils through the Strait of Hormuz), and potentially affecting food production and prices in other regions as well.