Iran war: From fertilizer to food crisis?
The Iran war has disrupted critical supply chains and driven up the cost of energy and fertilizer, both essential agricultural inputs, sparking fears of another global food crisis.
- conflicts
- fertilizer prices
- energy prices
- Iran war
By Rob VosJuly 2, 2026
This post first appeared in Welternährung, the specialist journal of Welthungerhilfe. The article is also available in German.
The Iran war has disrupted critical supply chains and driven up the cost of energy and fertilizer, both essential agricultural inputs, sparking fears of another global food crisis. With input costs soaring, fertilizer exports from the Gulf countries suspended, and production facilities facing unprecedented challenges, the world’s ability to maintain stable food supplies is increasingly at risk.
The input crisis
Before the Iran war, fertilizer prices firmed in early 2026, following seasonal demand for spring applications by farms in the northern hemisphere. Prices spiked, however, following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February 2026, with prices of urea – a key chemical fertilizer – roughly doubling in a matter of weeks (Figure 1). Prices of phosphate (another main type of fertilizer) also increased, though more moderately from already elevated levels. Urea prices softened somewhat during May 2026, as also shown in Figure 1, following China’s announcement to lift its ban on urea exports and weakening of demand as the northern spring application ended (AMIS 2026a). Yet, upward pressure on prices remains high as fertilizer supplies are constrained by the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Middle East supplies about one-third of global urea exports. Since the end of February 2026, an estimated 3.9 million tonnes of these exports have been suspended. This is equivalent to 30 percent of annual fertilizer exports of the Gulf States. Most production facilities in the region continue to operate at reduced rates to prevent excessive stockpiling. While urea can generally be stored for several months, high temperatures and moisture can damage its quality. The risk of substantial fertilizer supply shortages is rising as the conflict prolongs and the Strait of Hormuz stays closed.