How the Iran crisis affects fertilizer-dependent countries: The case of Mexico
The conflict in the Persian Gulf, including limits on cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed up energy and fertilizer prices and boosted uncertainty in global markets.
- mexico
- fertilizers
- prices
- energy prices
By Valeria Piñeiro, Juan Pablo Gianatiempo, Jorge Amado Rueda, and Joseph GlauberApril 20, 2026
Key takeaways
•Reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is squeezing farmers. Energy and fertilizer prices are climbing faster than food prices, eroding producer profitability.
•Mexico is highly exposed to fertilizer import shocks. Heavy reliance on imported nitrogen and potash makes the sector vulnerable to external disruptions like the Iran crisis.
•High-value and staple crops face different pressures. Input‑intensive exports and nitrogen‑dependent maize are especially sensitive to fertilizer price changes.
The conflict in the Persian Gulf, including limits on cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed up energy and fertilizer prices and boosted uncertainty in global markets. At the same time, food commodities markets remain relatively well supplied, and prices have not risen at the same pace. This has created a growing imbalance between rising input costs and relatively stable output prices—and an emerging predicament for producers, who risk seeing their profits erode.
For Mexico and other countries of the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region, this dynamic is especially challenging. In recent decades, LAC has consolidated its role as a net exporter of food and fertilizer consumption has steadily increased, driven by agricultural intensification and the expansion of export-oriented farming. Meanwhile, domestic fertilizer production has not kept pace. As a result, the region has become increasingly dependent on fertilizer imports. Reliance on imported nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potash (K) increased from 78%, 63%, and 96% in 2010 to 90%, 71%, and 97%, respectively, over the past five years.1
This growing import dependence, particularly on key nutrients such as nitrogen and potash, highlights the region’s vulnerability to external supply shocks and price volatility.