From Research to Resilience: Partnering for Scalable Solutions in Fragile Contexts

By Lucia Carillo and Katrina Kosec 

CGIAR Science Week—an April 2025 event at the United Nations Office in Nairobi, Kenya that brought together global leaders in research, policy, and development—included one standout session. The session, titled “Science and Innovation for Resilient Food Systems in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Settings,” drew attention to the pressing need for research-driven solutions in the world’s most challenging environments. Hosted by the Fragile and Conflict-Affected (FCA) Food Systems area of work of CGIAR’s Food Frontiers and Security Science Program, the event opened with a welcome from the area of work’s lead, Katrina Kosec—Senior Research Fellow at IFPRI and Interim Deputy Director of the Food Frontiers and Security Science Program. It was followed by two dynamic panel sessions led by CGIAR FCA researchers, showcasing CGIAR partnerships in fragile settings. 

The first panel explored how CGIAR innovations have contributed to building resilience in FCA settings. It focused on CGIAR’s role in strengthening food security and resilience through practical, research-driven interventions. Panelists from Ethiopia, Sudan, and Mozambique shared their experiences with innovations such as improved seed systems, capacity sharing with local actors, and innovations contributing to resilient food supply chains. The discussion emphasized the importance of inclusive, locally-grounded approaches and the need to scale up evidence generation and policy engagement to support communities facing compounding crises. 

Harnessing AI to Guide Decision-Making in Fragile Settings 

The event then hosted a research presentation by IFPRI researcher Yanyan Liu, who presented her AI-based famine prediction model. It aims to complement traditional systems like FEWS NET and IPC—both of which are under strain due to funding cuts. The model combines food prices, satellite and weather data, soil conditions, population statistics, and conflict indicators to predict acute food insecurity up to one year in advance, accurately identifying over 94% of IPC Phase 3+ crises. She emphasized its utility in conflict zones where field data collection is limited, while stressing the continued need for high-quality data to improve model performance. This type of innovation in data is facilitated through partnership with Google and is essential to the work of the FCA area of work under Food Frontiers and Security.  

Partnerships for Scaling Research-Driven Solutions: Driving Change Through Research and Multi-Stakeholder Collaboration  

In a second panel, experts from governments, humanitarian agencies, and research institutions explored how cross-sector collaboration is transforming evidence into large-scale impact—particularly in complex and fragile settings. The conversation highlighted the importance of knowledge exchange, innovative approaches to data, and inclusive research agendas to ensure that social protection systems and humanitarian response remain adaptive and sustainable amid growing conflict and climate challenges. 

Reflecting on the setting of CGIAR’s 2025 Science Week, Dr. Lynett Ochuma, Director and Acting Secretary in Kenya’s Directorate of Social Development, opened the panel by highlighting the country’s leadership in integrating climate resilience into social protection and economic inclusion programs. She underscored the critical role of research partnerships—particularly research co-designed alongside IFPRI staff—in equipping the government with the evidence and tools needed to design more effective policies. From refining targeting systems to embedding data-driven insights into both national- and county-level strategies, CGIAR’s contributions are helping Kenya shift from reactive assistance to anticipatory, resilience-building approaches. 

“One of the key values that research has offered to us as a government is in terms of knowledge sharing and transfer of skills. And this has helped in our policy design. Recently in Kenya, we were able to review our social protection policy that we had in 2011, and now we have a social protection policy for 2023.… Research has also helped us in terms of evidence-based planning and early warning systems. When we started our… social assistance, it was mainly cash-transfer, but over time, we’ve been able to evolve, and [now] we have anticipatory actions responding to the findings that we’ve gotten from the research.”- Dr. Lynett Ochuma, Director and Acting Secretary in Kenya’s Directorate of Social Development

Providing a view from the front lines of humanitarian response, Nigist Abebe, Head of Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping at the World Food Programme (WFP), from Sudan described the immense challenges of operating in a context of ongoing conflict, where traditional data systems have broken down. Despite these constraints, WFP continues to identify food-insecure populations using a combination of alternative data sources and technical expertise. Partnerships with CGIAR centers, she explained, are proving vital in refining early warning systems and strengthening targeting methodologies where data are scarce. 

 “We try to really avoid duplication of efforts because we can’t afford to do that at this difficult time. We [are] also trying to balance donor demands … for measurable attributes, attributable impact, which can sometimes conflict with operational reality of working in a context like Sudan. And in this way, working with partners like CGIAR really … helps a lot.… This technical partnership helps us in providing the relevant tools to collect the relevant information and analytical systems to ensure programmatic decisions are evidence-based.…The main thing is, by working with technical agencies like CGIAR, we have a very strong evidence [base] to convince donors—to convince partners also—for decision making … to target programs to ensure effectiveness.” – Nigist Abebe, Head of Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping at the World Food Programme (WFP)

David Githiri Njoroge, Senior Operations Officer and Climate Action Lead at UNHCR’s EHAGL Regional Bureau, emphasized the particular vulnerabilities displaced populations face amid overlapping climate and conflict crises. He illustrated how CGIAR research has contributed to UNHCR’s work across key sectors—including livelihoods; water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH); and shelter—by informing approaches that bridge humanitarian response and long-term climate adaptation in both refugee and host communities. 

“Our work with CGIAR is helping us to deepen our understanding of future climate-related threats and challenges specific to these disparate settings, and we’re able to obtain evidence that we need to tailor our policies and inform our partners, such as the World Bank and the AfDB to help them target their climate financing. And with this, we are able to include the refugees into the national systems. Because a lot of this work that is done in the region—which is looking at climate mitigation, climate adaptation—is through governments or through development actors, and normally the refugees are out of that scheme. So basically, with the collaboration that we are having with CGIAR, we are able to get data that is able to … make programming that is responsive to the possibilities placed in the region.”  – David Githiri Njoroge, Senior Operations Officer and Climate Action Lead at UNHCR’s EHAGL Regional Bureau,

Bringing in a regional perspective, Sheila Nkunika, Regional Social Protection Advisor at WFP’s Nairobi office, stressed the importance of co-creating evidence with partners like CGIAR in fragile contexts. She advocated for research models in which governments, humanitarian agencies, and research institutions collaborate from the outset to define questions and priorities. This, she argued, ensures that evidence is not only methodologically sound but also immediately relevant and usable for scaling and adapting social protection programs. 

 “I just want to give an example of our partnership with CGIAR. In Somalia… we did research on the national program, the Baxnaano program, to really start seeing the fidelity of the program. What are the impacts of the program? And based on that, we see that [the] government is now designing the next phase of the Baxnaano program, thinking about creating linkages with different services: health, education, WASH. So, this is a good example of how this evidence has been applied in a context like Somalia, where there’s fragility.… I think operational research is one of the most powerful things I’ve seen. Being able to use existing programs to demonstrate how food systems can be strengthened—to demonstrate how social protection can be delivered in these environments—I think, is one of those transformational things, because most of the times people will tell you we can’t do this because of A, B, C, D. But if there are different partners in the room, and of course, CGIAR, we design programs that we can implement.… Being able to have operational research that follows those pilots or programs, I think that’s most effective.” – Sheila Nkunika, Regional Social Protection Advisor at WFP’s Nairobi office

Alistair Cowan, Head of Programmes for the Danish Refugee Council in Kenya, emphasized the need for implementation-focused partnerships to tackle the complex challenges faced in refugee-hosting areas. Drawing on his experience and concrete examples, he highlighted that while regenerative agriculture and resilience research offer valuable insights, their effectiveness hinges on strong community ownership and sustainable market connections. For partnerships to endure beyond donor cycles or funding, they must be grounded in local leadership and linked to private sector actors. Cowan also underscored the urgency of real-time, adaptive solutions, calling for closer collaboration between researchers and practitioners to co-develop and rapidly test locally-driven approaches. 

“We have a project in Mandera, where we’re working with pastoral communities that have been hugely impacted by the changing climate and ongoing conflict. So you have the conflict–climate–displacement nexus dynamics… and the traditional approaches to food, to water security, just don’t work so well—they’re not fit for purpose… My call to everyone is: let’s share ideas, let’s talk more. If anyone’s got ideas in this space, then let’s work together because we’re boots on the ground trying to implement with local partners. And this is where we can test some of the things, but we need to speak more with research partners and have our activities be research-informed.” – Alistair Cowan, Head of Programmes for the Danish Refugee Council in Kenya

Why Partnership Matters 

Throughout the discussion, panelists reiterated the critical role of partnerships and reinforced a powerful message: scientific innovation doesn’t scale on its own. Whether it’s refining targeting strategies for governments, guiding humanitarian response in times of crisis, or supporting climate adaptation in displacement contexts, CGIAR’s partnerships with local and global actors are essential to building resilient food systems in fragile environments. As the discussion made clear, resilience goes beyond tools and forecasts—it relies on shared priorities, grounded collaboration, and research that directly serves the people and communities who need it most. 

In his closing remarks, Jo Swinnen, Director General of IFPRI, reflected on the journey of CGIAR’s Research Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration—a novel area of research that has since proven vital and well within the comparative advantage of CGIAR and IFPRI, given rising global instability. He noted, “[I]n a way, we would wish that this research is no longer necessary going forward. But unfortunately, the way the world is functioning right now, the way it’s going—I think it’s going to be more needed than ever.” His words underscore the urgency of sustained collaboration, open data, and policy-relevant research to tackle the deepening link between fragility and food insecurity. 

As CGIAR looks ahead, this Science Week session in Nairobi serves as a compelling blueprint for the future: one where evidence is co-created, policy is grounded in local realities, and scaling is driven not just by good ideas but by trusted partnerships. In FCA settings—where lives and livelihoods are increasingly shaped by compounding crises and displacement—this kind of collaboration is not just good to have, it is essential. By continuing to bridge science, policy, and frontline practice, CGIAR and its partners are helping build a more inclusive, anticipatory, and resilient global food system.