Forecasts across the frontier: How climate data is guiding pastoralists
In Moyale, on the Ethiopia-Kenya border, localized climate forecasts help pastoralists make timely decisions on livestock, water, and crops amid drought and erratic rain.
- Climate
- climate change
- Ethiopia
- Kenya
- Africa
Forecasts across the frontier: How climate data is guiding pastoralists
In Moyale, on the Ethiopia-Kenya border, localized climate forecasts help pastoralists make timely decisions on livestock, water, and crops amid drought and erratic rain.
In Moyale, the border town that straddles Ethiopia and Kenya, that translation took on urgency. The March-May (MAM) 2026 forecast pointed to normal to below normal rainfall across most of the Moyale-Borana cluster, with wetter-than-normal conditions projected only in parts of northwestern areas such as Teltele and South Omo. On paper, the phrase “normal to below normal” sounds technical. In Moyale, it landed heavily. Herders and farmers, already managing fragile herds and small crop plots, felt the weight of another uncertain season. Pasture was scarce, water points strained, and families were forced to make difficult decisions about where to move livestock or whether to delay planting.
The region is emerging from consecutive droughts between 2020 and 2023, destructive floods in 2023, and a failed October–December (OND) 2025 rainy season that delivered less than 30 percent of expected rainfall in some areas. Water points have dried, boreholes are overused, pasture has thinned to dust, and the recovery windows between shocks are shrinking. The forecast therefore signals potential stress on already fragile water and pasture systems and underscores the urgent need for preparedness before conditions deteriorate further.