El Niño is coming and the time for Malawi to prepare is running short
Malawi faces a high El Niño risk heading into the 2026/27 growing season. Past El Niño events have reduced maize production, increased food insecurity, and strained household livelihoods across the country.
- climate change
- food crises
- social protection
By Jan Duchoslav, Joseph Nagoli, Andrew Jamali, and Grace Kumchulesi
October 5, 2026
Key takeaways
- Malawi faces a high El Niño risk heading into the 2026/27 growing season. Past El Niño events have reduced maize production, increased food insecurity, and strained household livelihoods across the country.
- Early action is critical to limit those impacts and avert a potential humanitarian crisis. Farmers can strengthen resilience through drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, improved soil management, and other measures.
- Government and partners should move quickly to prepare social protection systems, enable well-functioning food markets, and coordinate response efforts before shortages emerge.
Second in a series. Read the first post here.
El Niño events are extended periods of warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific that alter global atmospheric circulation, affecting seasonal rainfall patterns in many parts of the world. Currently, El Niño is strengthening rapidly. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño in 2026-27 and a nearly 70% chance that its peak strength will exceed that of all previous El Niño events since 1950. Meanwhile, the Iran war and disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have driven up prices of fuel and fertilizers.