Beyond the harvest: Uncovering the hidden risks driving poverty and hunger in developing economies
When we think about economic crises in developing countries, we tend to picture droughts, floods, or pest outbreaks devastating local agriculture and driving up poverty and undernourishment. While that scenario is accurate for some countries, it tells only part of the story.
- poverty
- hunger
By Askar Mukashov and Eleanor JonesApril 24, 2026
Key takeaways
•A new systematic risk profiling (SRP) tool analyzes the varied triggers of economic shocks in developing countries using economy-wide models, historical data, and machine learning.
•SRP was used to simulate thousands of shock scenarios in 11 countries, showing that household‑level welfare is often shaped more by global price and capital‑flow shocks than by domestic agricultural crises.
•By identifying country‑specific risk profiles, SRP enables targeted policymaking, helping governments tailor responses to build resilience to shocks with local or global origins.
When we think about economic crises in developing countries, we tend to picture droughts, floods, or pest outbreaks devastating local agriculture and driving up poverty and undernourishment. While that scenario is accurate for some countries, it tells only part of the story.
In today’s interconnected world, economic shocks rarely occur in isolation. Weather-related shocks may collide with spikes in global energy and fertilizer prices or sudden interruptions in foreign capital flows. Understanding how these forces interact at the country level is the first step to designing policies that respond to shocks and build long-term resilience. Yet, most traditional analytical tools are only equipped to look at shocks one at a time.
To bridge this gap, IFPRI recently applied a new analytical framework—systematic risk profiling (SRP)—across 11 developing economies in Africa and Asia. By combining economy-wide models, historical data, and machine learning, we simulated 10,000 correlated shock scenarios per country. Results show that the shocks countries face are driven by a range of local and global factors and that the relative importance of these factors varies across countries. Our findings reveal which risks are most important for a country and can help policymakers manage economic uncertainty and protect vulnerable populations.