Within about a week of Russia crossing into eastern Ukraine in the dawn of Feb. 24, 2022, prices for grains like soybeans and some vegetable oils spiked about 50% to 60%, Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, told ABC News.
Those prices have since stabilized to pre-war levels by the end of summer, as surplus goods from the rest of the world made up for the difference in what Ukraine was no longer able to export, Glauber said.
The global food supply “dodged a bullet” after places like the U.S., Canada, European Union, and other big exporting regions saw “fairly decent” crop production, Glauber said. There was concern that Russia’s output would be affected, but Russia ended up exporting much more wheat than anticipated, he added. Australia also saw a “record” wheat crop, Glauber said.
While food prices have returned to pre-war levels, they have not returned to pre-pandemic levels, when prices were “considerably lower,” Glauber said.
The global food supply is in a “tight market” in the coming year, especially as the war continues, Glauber said. Plantings in Ukraine are down 35 to 40 percent, meaning that one of the major exporters in the world is going to produce far less again this year, he said.
“The long-term impact on production has been devastating,” Glauber said.
Read the full article for more comments from Joseph Glauber and other experts.
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