CGIAR@COP30: Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T Negotiation Updates

Climate finance is generating considerable interest at COP30. Last year’s talks in Baku (COP29) set a bold financial vision through the “Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3 T”, aiming to scale up climate finance for developing countries to at least $1.3 trillion annually by 2035. Now, in Belém, negotiators face the challenge of translating that vision into concrete commitments. The urgency is evident: current climate finance flows fall far short of what’s needed. In 2023, developing economies received roughly $196 billion in climate finance – barely one-sixth of the annual funds required to meet the new goal. While developed nations finally met the old $100 billion target in 2022, the scale of needs has grown exponentially. By 2035, trillions will be required to help vulnerable countries slash emissions and adapt to worsening floods, droughts, and heatwaves. The gap is especially stark for agriculture and food systems, which contribute nearly one-third of global greenhouse emissions but receive only a tiny fraction of climate finance (about 4.3%). In short, business-as-usual funding won’t secure a climate-resilient, food-secure future – a message front and center at COP30.

CGIAR is advocating to put food and agriculture on the climate finance agenda. A core message is that investing in agrifood systems yields outsized benefits for both mitigation and adaptation – from carbon-rich soils to climate-hardy crops – yet these sectors remain woefully underfunded.

In 2024, CGIAR actively engaged in Technical Expert Dialogues (TED9, TED10, and TED11), including this submission submitting evidence-based inputs that aligned climate finance with national priorities (NDCs, NAPs) and scientific guidance. CGIAR highlights that prioritizing agriculture, water, and food systems is crucial to achieving global food security and requires an estimated $300–400 billion annually to transform these systems in line with the 1.5°C target. Equitable financial allocation across adaptation, mitigation, and loss and damage is essential

Although COP29 adopted a new NCQG of at least $300 billion per year by 2035—ostensibly tripling the previous $100 billion target this goal remains modest compared to the real needs of developing countries, which had requested $1.3 trillion annually. For context, the $300–400 billion needed annually for food systems transformation already exceeds the new target.

Looking Ahead at COP30

Early last week, the Baku to Belém Roadmap, launched by the COP29 and COP30 Presidencies of Azerbaijan and Brazil. It outlines a plan to mobilize at least US$1.3 trillion annually in climate finance for developing countries by 2035. Building on the Baku Finance Goal, it calls for renewed ambition to turn climate pledges into tangible progress, marking ten years since the Paris Agreement. The roadmap focuses on five key “Rs”: Replenishing concessional and low-cost finance, Rebalancing fiscal space and debt, Rechanneling private capital, Revamping institutional capacity, and Reshaping financial systems for fairness and accessibility. Early actions between 2026 and 2028 should strengthen data, transparency, and cooperation to drive change and reform. The initiative aims to reflect the growing momentum to reform global finance systems, aiming to align climate action with economic transformation and ensure that ambition translates into real impact for developing nations.

For CGIAR, an optimal outcome would be a roadmap that pairs ambition with specifics, clear annual targets (trillions, not billions), defined shares for adaptation (especially in agriculture), and accountability mechanisms. The draft “Baku to Belém” plan emphasizes focusing support on the poorest and most climate-vulnerable countries, including many agrarian economies. CGIAR supports this focus and urges that the quality of finance be addressed too – grants and debt relief rather than loans that add burden. Already at COP28, about $600–700 million was pledged to the new Loss and Damage Fund (a start, but <0.2% of estimated annual climate damages) and discussions have begun on overhauling multilateral development banks to unlock more climate lending.

COP30 Week 1 Summary

Finally, underpinning all these thematic talks is the question of finance. Last year at COP29, countries struck a landmark deal on a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance. They committed to mobilize at least $300 billion per year by 2035 for developing countries, with developed nations taking the leadwri.org. Beyond that, they set an ambitious collective aspiration: $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 from all sources (public and private), which is much closer to estimated need. This package sometimes called the “Baku-to-Belém Roadmap to 1.3T”  was a response to the failure of the old $100 billion goal and the glaring gap between climate funding and the costs countries face. 

At COP30 Week 1, discussions on finance focused on turning those pledges into action. The COP29 and COP30 Presidencies jointly developed, presented and conducted consultation on the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, and they are expected to present it formally. In informal sessions, parties debated how to operationalize the roadmap’s five action fronts for reaching $1.3 trillion. Key issues include: identifying new sources of funding (such as MDB reforms, private sector contributions, innovative taxes or levies), ensuring a balanced allocation between mitigation and adaptation, and establishing mechanisms to track progress and accountability toward the $300B/$1.3T targets. 

While the need for more finance is clear, key gaps remain,notably, no sub-goal for adaptation. Developing countries are pushing to double or triple adaptation finance, and want more grants, clearer milestones, and transparency on delivery. Developed countries prefer flexibility, citing budget limits and private sector uncertainties. Another topic is accountability: developing nations want clarity on how the $300B will be delivered, whereas some developed countries prefer flexibility, citing uncertainties in budget processes and private investment flows.  

For CGIAR, climate finance is the linchpin for progress across all tracks. With less than 5% of climate funds currently reaching agriculture, we continue pushing for food systems to be prioritized. Encouraging signs include the Belém Declaration, which ties climate action to hunger and calls for investment in resilient food systems. As ministers take over in Week 2, we’ll be watching for the reactions on the presidencies presentation of the roadmap and how it will reflect in formal negotiations. 

COP30 Week 2 Summary

After last year’s agreement on scaling up finance and the Baku to Belem roadmap to 1.3 billion. We leave COP30 with no clear roadmap on how the 1.3 billion target will be reached.