CGIAR Science Strengthens Refugee Protection

CGIAR research helps UNHCR integrate climate and nature data into global operations

More than 90 million refugees and internally displaced people live in places where climate shocks and environmental degradation increasingly shape daily risks. Floods, droughts, heat stress, and ecosystem loss now affect not only why people are displaced, but also how safe and viable displacement settings remain over time. Yet until recently, humanitarian operations have had limited tools to systematically assess and anticipate these risks.

Research by CGIAR is beginning to change this. Through a growing collaboration with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), climate and environmental evidence is being embedded into how the agency plans, prioritizes, and designs its operations worldwide. The aim is not to add another layer of analysis, but to strengthen protection outcomes by shifting from reactive responses toward anticipatory, climate-informed action. 

Climate and environmental risks in displacement settings

Refugee settlements are often established in ecologically fragile areas such as arid zones, floodplains, or degraded forest landscapes. In these locations, climate hazards intensify existing vulnerabilities and can heighten tensions over water, land, and fuel between displaced people and host communities. Environmental degradation further compounds these risks by weakening ecosystems that regulate water, protect soils, and support food production.

Despite growing recognition of these dynamics, humanitarian systems have historically lacked the data and analytical capacity needed to assess climate vulnerability consistently across locations. This has constrained the ability to plan settlements, livelihoods, and infrastructure in ways that remain viable under changing climatic conditions.

Embedding climate intelligence into humanitarian decision-making

To address this gap, CGIAR researchers working under the Food Frontiers Science Programs are integrating climate and environmental data directly into UNHCR’s operational workflows. The focus is on building institutional capacity, helping UNHCR staff identify, compare, and manage climate and nature-related risks across countries and regions.

A central innovation emerging from this collaboration is the Refugee Climate Vulnerability Index (RCVI). This generative-AI-enabled platform combines socio-economic, geospatial, and environmental indicators to rank refugee settlements according to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Rather than producing static assessments, the RCVI generates location-specific profiles and practical recommendations to inform planning decisions.

The tool will be piloted in Kenya, Ethiopia, Chad, Cameroon, and Mauritania. In these contexts, it is intended to help prioritize interventions such as flood protection, shelter reinforcement, and livelihood diversification for the most at-risk populations.

From global tools to country-level action

Alongside global analytics, CGIAR research is supporting applied, country-level collaboration with UNHCR operations.

In Sudan, researchers from the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT and the International Water Management Institute are working with UNHCR to co-design research on sustainable irrigation, nature-based environmental management, and clean cooking value chains in displacement settings. These efforts are informing UNHCR’s “Solutions from the Start” approach, which aims to ensure that refugee settlements are environmentally sustainable and socially cohesive from their inception.

In Bangladesh, collaboration in Cox’s Bazar, including the Kutupalong–Balukhali mega-camp, has focused on ecosystem rehabilitation in one of the world’s most densely populated refugee settlements. Research on slope stabilization, watershed restoration, and reforestation has helped reduce flood and disease risks while improving food security, household incomes, and relations with host communities.

Looking ahead, CGIAR research will also inform the Solutions Strategy for Afghan Refugees in Pakistan. Planned work in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will map climate hazards and resilience opportunities to support UNHCR efforts to mobilize climate finance for refugee protection and sustainable reintegration.

Strengthening uptake through surge capacity

A key factor behind the uptake of this evidence has been CGIAR’s Surge Capacity model, which embeds scientists directly within UN and government teams. This on-call secondment mechanism allows for rapid, demand-driven support and helps translate research into operational decisions.

Through this model, CGIAR evidence has informed UNHCR planning processes and contributed to multi-agency platforms, including work with UN-Habitat and the UN Development Coordination Office. An internal Climate Action Readiness Assessment recently highlighted CGIAR’s contributions as substantial in strengthening UNHCR’s preparedness for climate risks.

Toward anticipatory humanitarian action

For displaced populations, particularly women and youth, who often face disproportionate climate impacts, the implications are concrete: safer settlements, more resilient livelihoods, and reduced exposure to climate shocks. For UNHCR, the integration of climate and nature data supports a broader shift toward anticipatory risk management across its global operations.

As climate pressures continue to reshape displacement dynamics, this collaboration illustrates how targeted research can strengthen humanitarian decision-making, linking scientific evidence to practical action where risks are highest and resources most constrained.

This work is carried out with support from the CGIAR Climate Action Science Program (CASP) and the CGIAR Food Frontiers and Security (FFS) Science Program. We would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund: https://www.cgiar.org/funders/