Africa's smallholder farmers face collapse if we do not act on climate change

By John Choptiany 

Climate change is here. It is real. African smallholder farmers – the backbone of food and nutrition security – are at the frontline.  

Battered by a ‘perfect storm’ of climate shocks—simultaneous extreme heat, droughts, floods, and rising temperature variability—smallholder farmers, particularly in rain‑fed systems, face mounting risks. They are often ill‑equipped to cope. Even with adaptation measures, global staple crop yields are projected to decline by ~24 % by 2100. Farmers are in a multi‑front battle, unprepared to win without significant support and investment in resilience. The world cannot afford to ignore their plight. The challenge is only becoming more difficult as shocks and stresses are no longer rare occurrences. 

Smallholder farmers are at the forefront of experiencing shocks and stresses. They don’t have significant savings to fall back on. They do not have unlimited energy, water, or backup food supplies. If the rains don’t come on time or pests arrive, there is no plan B. Often, the problem becomes too much rain, their homes and fields are flooded, or they have unprecedented droughts. Without reserves and help often coming late, they resort to hitting the road and becoming climate shock-related refugees, often in their own countries (internally displaced people). 

Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change shocks. 95% of African farmers depend on rain-fed agriculture, which is highly susceptible to shifts in weather patterns. Rainy seasons have become shorter and less predictable, while droughts, floods, and high temperatures have increased in frequency and severity. In 2021, for example, the Horn of Africa suffered the worst drought in over four decades, devastating harvests and plunging millions into hunger. These droughts will likely continue without significant mitigation efforts, as the Horn of Africa has undergone failed rainy seasons for three years.  

Higher temperatures due to climate change will lead to lower crop production, resulting in severe health and economic impacts across Africa. If global temperatures rise by 4°C by 2100, maize yields in some African countries could decline by more than 20%—a catastrophic blow given that maize provides nearly half the calories and protein consumed in Southern and Eastern Africa. At “only” 2°C of global warming, yields of staple crops like maize, sorghum, millet, and wheat in sub-Saharan Africa are projected to fall by 5–10%, with greater losses in already vulnerable regions. Without significant adaptation, much of the region’s rain-fed agriculture could face declining productivity and rising food insecurity. If warming exceeds this, yields could fall by up to 20%, rendering vast areas unsuitable for staple crops like maize, millet, and sorghum.  

Beyond causing lower yields, climate change also results in the crops having lower nutritional value. For example, one study cites that higher CO2 levels are correlated with lower amounts of protein, iron, zinc, and Vitamin B in rice. Climate change threatens economic growth at the national level as well. For example, over the past 40 years, Tanzania has witnessed a 20% decrease in export revenue because of a >1°C temperature increase, with $50 billion a year in funding needed for the African continent to effectively adapt to the changing climate. 

Knowledge Under Siege 

It is not just crops alone taking the heat, but knowledge and science. African farmers have relied on inherited wisdom for generations to predict rainfall and determine planting times. Climate change has weakened these methods. Erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts, and the spread of new pests and diseases—such as the fall armyworm—are overwhelming traditional coping mechanisms: lower yields, higher crop failure, and increased food insecurity result. Therefore, many farmers are left without the knowledge to adjust farming practices based on unpredictable climate conditions, with de-investments in science gaining momentum. 

 A Widening Yield Gap 

While global agricultural yields have improved through technology and investment, Africa’s crop yields remain stubbornly low due to a range of causes, including climate change, poor knowledge of agronomy, and limited inputs. Maize yields, for instance, average just 1.2 to 2.8 tons per hectare—far below global benchmarks. Global average maize yields are projected to reach ~6.5 t/ha by 2034, with potential achievable yields of ~10.4 t/ha under optimal conditions. For wheat and rice, averages stand at ~3.9 t/ha and ~3.5 t/ha, compared to potential yields of ~7.7 t/ha and ~8.5 t/ha, respectively. These figures underscore the significant yield gap facing sub‑Saharan Africa, where actual staple yields often fall well below global standards.  

Climate change is reducing the already low yields and widening the gap between African farmers and their counterparts in more technologically advanced regions. Without urgent intervention, Africa faces a future of deepening food insecurity and growing dependence on expensive imports. 

 The Most Vulnerable Left Behind 

Within the smallholder community, women, the elderly, and people with disabilities are especially at risk. Rising temperatures pose a specific threat to pregnant women and children, as exposure to extreme heat during pregnancy can lead to drastic health outcomes for both the mother and child. Vulnerable populations have fewer resources to adapt, limited access to education and extension services, and are often excluded from formal markets. Extension worker coverage is thin—sometimes just one agent per 1,000 farmers—meaning vital knowledge about best agronomic practices, i.e., using improved seeds, sustainable fertilizer application, and timely weather forecasts, rarely reaches them. While AI can provide valuable support to smallholders, it is still in its infancy, and significant trust, language, and context-specific issues remain in the near term. 

 Why We Must Act Now 

The climate crisis demands a multi-faceted response. There is no single solution. A combination of approaches is required to address the impacts of the changing climate: 

• Innovation in Crop Breeding: Developing drought-resistant, heat-tolerant, and disease-resistant varieties is crucial. Institutions like the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) are leading the way, creating crops that can withstand the new climate reality.
• Sustainable Practices: Integrated soil fertility management, crop diversification, and climate-smart agriculture are essential for stabilising yields and building resilience. Diverse farming systems that combine cereals, legumes, vegetables, and underutilised opportunity crops—such as cowpea, pigeon pea, orange-fleshed sweet potato, and African leafy vegetables—enhance ecosystem health, reduce pest pressure, and improve household nutrition.  
• For example, in northern Ghana, smallholder farmers adopting zaï pits and compost microdosing combined with intercropping millet and cowpea have reported increased soil moisture retention, reduced fertilizer use, and improved yields even in degraded or drought-prone areas.
• Digital Advisory Services: Mobile-based weather alerts, site-specific recommendations, and forecasting tools can bridge the knowledge gap, giving farmers the information they need to adapt in real time. AgWise, CGIAR’s digital advisory platform that brings location-specific and climate-informed advice to farmers, has assisted in improving crop productivity by up to 30% across SSA. 
• Capacity Building: Farmer field schools, demonstration plots, farmer-to-farmer learning, and targeted training empower communities to adopt new methods and technologies.
• Policy and Research: Long-term trials, climate and emissions modelling, and partnerships between research institutions and policymakers are needed to guide investment and scale solutions. IITA is looking at the viability of cropping systems under climate scenarios to provide better recommendations to farmers and policymakers and prioritise research areas.
• Nutrition and Resilience Must Go Hand-in-Hand: Boosting yields is not enough. Climate change can reduce the nutritional content of staple crops, leading to “hidden hunger” even where calories are sufficient. Solutions must therefore prioritise not just productivity, but also crops’ nutritional diversity and climate resilience. Emphasising resilient and diverse cropping systems, including neglected and underutilised species (NUS), strengthens dietary quality and enables farmers to better adapt to changing climate conditions. IITA has prioritised this approach through its organisational thrusts in Improved Health and Nutrition and Climate-Resilient Agriculture.
• Investment in innovation: Donors, governments, and the global community must invest in research, innovation, and scaling climate-smart solutions. Supporting organizations like IITA, which blend cutting-edge science with grassroots engagement, is essential to building a more resilient future for Africa’s farmers. The time to act is now—before the window for meaningful adaptation closes. 

 Agriculture is hyper-local. One side of a river can have very different soils or weather patterns. Farmers have been growing crops for millennia and are a deep well of local knowledge. Co-creating solutions is essential for building trust. It’s important to bring them into the process early for ownership. They also deserve credit – and funding- for working to restore and regenerate their farms and the environment. Farmers need support with insurance and microfinance to invest in farm improvements that will help the environment and increase their yields and resilience. They need up-to-date and actionable information on improving their farms and farming practices, market prices, weather information, etc. They don’t need to know relative humidity or academic literature, but rather, information that responds to their challenges and needs. 

 Diversity Builds Resilience: Monocultures are vulnerable to climate shocks, pests, and market failures. Promoting agrobiodiversity, including opportunity crops better suited to marginal conditions, is a proven strategy to spread risk and build resilience. These crops often require fewer inputs, withstand drought and poor soils, and provide critical micronutrients. A more diverse farm is a more secure farm, ecologically and economically. 

 The High Cost of Inaction 

If current trends continue, Africa’s smallholder farmers will be left further behind, with devastating consequences for food security, rural livelihoods, and economic stability across the globe. The accelerating climate crisis is not just an environmental issue but a humanitarian and development emergency. Some models are projecting an increasing prevalence of malnutrition of over 40% by 2030. Failure to act will intensify poverty, deepen inequality, and increase the risk of conflict and displacement, with ripple effects felt far beyond the continent. Investing now in climate adaptation is thus not only a moral imperative, but an economic and geopolitical necessity, with adaptation investments yielding up to 10x returns, and $6 trillion in benefits at stake by 2035 if largely missed. 

 The world must not leave Africa’s smallholder farmers behind. Their resilience is the foundation of the continent’s food security. Their future is our shared responsibility.  

*Dr. John Choptiany is a Climate Adaptation Expert and the lead of the Resilience and Climate Adaptation Program at the IITA