Effects of dietary change - Synthesis across the case studies
Dietary shifts such as preference from cereals toward animal proteins may reshape the global food system in the future. The food system changes may threaten the environment, changing land-use patterns and increasing GHG emissions. Therefore, a sustainable food system is needed for supplying future food demand. However, there is a gap in the food demand literature that foresee the likely composition of a future global food basket. This study fills this gap by quantifying the future trend in dietary change and its effects. It combines the insights from several case studies. The focus of these case studies were partly on trend analysis and partly on identifying the determinants and levels of key demand elasticities. The latter is crucially important as demand elasticities drive many quantitative foresight models. Several key insights stand out from this study: (i) although per capita consumption of global staple cereals is likely to decline in many countries, total demand will increase, (ii) higher demand for animal protein worldwide is expected, (iii) increased demand for quality and healthy food, and (iv) a heterogeneous reorientation of future food basket is likely, varying from Asian to African countries. The results from our study can guide policymakers to design policies that improve sustainable food production and align with increased diversified diets.