Achieving wheat self-sufficiency in Brazil

Brazil is a leading grain producer and exporter, producing on average 6.6 million tons (Mt) of wheat per year from 2013 to 2023 [1]. However, to meet its average annual domestic consumption of 11.1 Mt over the same period, the country continued to rely on imports of 4.5 Mt of wheat each year (figure S1). This dependency on imports leads to high wheat prices in Brazil compared to the global average. Notably, in years when domestic wheat production is low, such as 2012, prices in Brazil can surge to 90% higher than the global average (figure S2), with the risk of pushing millions of Brazilians into hunger [2]. To reduce the impact of external dependence and wheat price volatility, the country needs to increase domestic wheat production.