Will the Iran crisis lead to another round of food price spikes?
Are we at the beginning of another period of high food prices? The short answer, in our assessment, is probably not—at least not yet. The conditions that drove prior price spikes are largely absent today, and the Hormuz disruption is a fundamentally different kind of shock than either the 2007-2008 food price crisis or 2022
- food prices
- conflicts
- Iran
By Shawn Arita and Joseph GlauberApril 7, 2026
Key takeaways
•Fertilizer and energy, not food, are the core shocks. The Hormuz closure is disrupting energy and fertilizer shipments and driving up prices, but grain markets remain stable.
•Classic food price‑spike conditions are absent. Strong demand, tight stocks, weak dollar, and weather shocks aren’t aligning as in past crises.
•Food prices likely won’t surge soon. Ample global stocks and favorable crop conditions limit the risk of broad commodity price spikes.
Agricultural commodity prices have been under sustained downward pressure since 2013–14. The 2022 spike in the wake of COVID-19 disruptions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine proved temporary rather than cyclical. Now, the Strait of Hormuz closure amid the Iran war has produced a sharp run-up in fertilizer prices, raising agricultural production costs. Yet thus far, global commodities markets have not spiked. More than a month into the crisis, urea prices are up roughly 40%, while wheat and maize prices have increased by about 6% and soybeans less than 3%). Rice prices have fallen over the period.
Are we at the beginning of another period of high food prices? The short answer, in our assessment, is probably not—at least not yet. The conditions that drove prior price spikes are largely absent today, and the Hormuz disruption is a fundamentally different kind of shock than either the 2007-2008 food price crisis or 2022. The Hormuz disruption is a fertilizer supply shock, not a crop supply shock, and that distinction matters both in price formation and appropriate policy responses.
During previous agricultural price spikes, including 2007-2008, 2010-2012, and 2021-2022, energy, fertilizer, and grain prices moved together: rising and falling in tandem (Figure 1). In 2026, the pattern is different: fertilizer and energy prices are rising while grain prices remain roughly flat.