Where do potash flows from Belarus go and what is happening with competitors (My Fin)
- Impact Area
The restrictions imposed on the Belarusian “kaliyka” in 2021 and the expansion of sanctions in 2022 not only reduced the industry’s export opportunities but also led to a forced reorientation of commodity flows and building new delivery routes, according to a report by My Fin (Belarus). In the face of sanctions pressure, Belarus continues to trade in fertilizers, however, in some areas, problems with the delivery of products from the country remain. While China is increasing imports of Belarusian potash, India and Brazil are building stocks at the expense of alternative suppliers. Barriers in the form of sanctions and complicated logistics continue to hinder the access of domestic fertilizers to world markets, and this, in turn, creates additional opportunities for competitors. Different approaches to maintaining foreign trade statistics and classification of goods, time lags, and other factors affect the final export/import figures and do not guarantee complete objectivity. At the same time, in the context of a statistical vacuum, alternative data are an important source of information to track where potash flows from Belarus are going.
According to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) tracker, in the period from January to August 2022, the export of potassium from Belarus in quantitative terms decreased by 50 percent compared to the same period last year. At the same time, it should be taken into account that the calculations were made on the basis of reports from trading partners (53 states) and do not claim to be 100 percent accurate.