How are fertilizer markets coping with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz?
More than six months after the start of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer shipments out of the Persian Gulf region—both a key global transit point and producer of fertilizers and related products—remain largely halted.
- fertilizer prices
- conflicts
- Hormuz
By Joseph Glauber and Shawn AritaSeptember 18, 2026
Key takeaways
- Nitrogen markets are returning to pre-war levels, but risks remain. Urea and ammonia prices have fallen from earlier peaks, though seasonal demand could drive new increases if disruptions continue.
- Phosphate supplies remain tight and costly. Prices have stayed elevated as sulfur shortages continue to constrain production and trade.
- Sulfur has emerged as a major bottleneck. Reduced exports, transport disruptions, and export restrictions are raising costs across global fertilizer markets.
More than six months after the start of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer shipments out of the Persian Gulf region—both a key global transit point and producer of fertilizers and related products—remain largely halted. Though a ceasefire allowed some shipping to resume between mid-June and mid-July, fertilizer products accounted for only a very negligible share, according to the WTO. Since the resumption of hostilities in mid-July, shipments through the strait tracked by IMF-Portwatch have fallen back to near zero.
Yet global exports of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers have fallen by only about 9%, with exporting countries outside the Gulf, including China and the United States, making up some of the difference. At the same time, the market reaction has been mixed. Some fertilizer price spikes triggered by the start of the war in February have eased, reducing pressure on importing countries and farmers, while others remain high (Figure 1).