The co-creation of impact analysis of the Ukraine conflict informs policies and capacity sharing in Egypt, Kenya, and Nigeria

National Policies and Strategies responded quickly to governments’ concerns about the implications of the conflict in Ukraine. On-the-ground presence and trusted partnerships allowed the Initiative to bring together national expert teams and to co-create analyses, including model-based assessments in collaboration with the Foresight Initiative. Results were appreciated and used by governments and international partners. The rapid response happened as part of the Initiative’s ongoing efforts of “Building policy coherence”, “Integrating policy tools” and “Responding to policy demand and crisis”.

Global commodity prices experienced rapid increases in 2022, driven largely by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Given the implications for economic stability, food security, and poverty, governments and their development partners were concerned about the implications of escalating prices.

The CGIAR Initiative on National Policies and Strategies (NPS) responded rapidly to these concerns in line with NPS focus areas of “Building policy coherence”, “Integrating policy tools” and “Responding to policy demand and crisis”. In-country presence and trusted partnerships with governments and stakeholders in Egypt, Nigeria, and Kenya allowed NPS to quickly assemble expert teams and understand local policy needs. NPS, together with partners, co-created research to understand the country-specific implications that the conflict in Ukraine would have on the economy, food security, and diets. This co-creation happened as part of ongoing capacity-sharing efforts and strengthening policy dialogue for better coherence across key stakeholders.

“Rest assured that we are happy with the results you presented, we will use them, we’ll make sure that they work for us so that in some years to come we’ll be telling ourselves that it’s because we had this conscious plan, conscious targets that we are going to make things work.” — Prof. Njuguna Ndung’u, Cabinet Secretary (Minister), National Treasury & Economic Planning, Republic of Kenya 

In Egypt, wheat is a strategic commodity and a major source of calories for Egyptians, with about half of demand satisfied through imports. With the Ukraine crisis affecting wheat trade and supply chains, both immediate and longer-term analysis was needed to ensure sustainable and healthy diets and food systems. NPS wrote an initial blog that garnered widespread attention, conducted a phone survey, and conducted an economy-wide analysis with the Foresight Initiative and partners from the Institute of National Planning and Cairo University. A “National Wheat Day” event was held, following a Presidential decree to the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research and partners at the Academy of Scientific Research and Technology. The event was held with multiple other in-country partners, to an audience that included the Egyptian Deputy Minister of Supply and Internal Trade, the Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, and the Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research.

In Nigeria, analysis by NPS and Foresight was presented to the National Planning Development Group of donor representatives such as USAID, the World Bank, the IMF, and UNDP. The joint analysis helped bring greater coherence to development partners’ assessments and actions, with convincing estimates that showed the somewhat muted impacts of the conflict in Ukraine on Nigeria, the economy and food security due to Nigeria’s ability to substitute imports with domestically produced goods, and the windfall oil revenue from petroleum exports. Related, demand-driven, modeling training is delivered to the Nigerian Institute Of Social And Economic Research, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the Nigeria Governors’ Forum. The stakeholders have committed to updating data and models for future crisis analyses and to inform policy prioritization for Nigeria’s federal and state governments.

In Kenya, NPS worked with a team of experts from Kenyan partner institutions to co-create a model-based assessment together with Foresight. Results were presented in a series of events with key stakeholders and led to additional demand from the new incoming government to assess the expected implications of their new “Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Plan” in collaboration with the Kenyan Institute of Public Policy Research and Analysis. The National Treasury and Planning Cabinet Secretary (Minister) who participated in the public dissemination event said the research would “provide good strategic direction for policymaking”, and help the government to “connect the dots” and that results “will be used”.

Based on its country-level policy and strategy support, NPS also provides cross-country analysis and learning. In the context of the conflict in Ukraine, NPS published an article in the Global Food Security journal and NPS country partners presented their country-specific research and policy engagements during the CGIAR global seminar on “Unraveling the impacts and policy responses in low- and middle- income countries”.

References

1. Abay, Kibrom; Abdelradi, Fadi; Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul; Pauw, Karl; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Raouf, Mariam; and Thurlow, James. 2022. Egypt: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on poverty and food security. Global Crisis Country Brief 18. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 
2. Abay, Kibrom; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Kurdi, Sikandra; and Salama, Yousra. 2022. Food price shocks and diets among poor households in Egypt. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) blog. 
3. Andam, Kwaw; Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul; Pradesha, Angga; and Thurlow, James. 2022. Nigeria: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on poverty and food security. Global Crisis Country Brief 4. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 
4. Arndt, Channing; Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul; Pauw, Karl; and Thurlow, James. 2022. Russia-Ukraine war and the global crisis: Impacts on poverty and food security in developing countries. Global Crisis Country Brief 20. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 
5. Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Oseko, Edwin Ombui; Pradesha, Angga; Smart, Jenny; and Thurlow, James. 2022. Kenya: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on poverty and food security. Global Crisis Country Brief 1. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 
6. International Food Policy Research Institute. 2022. The Ukraine crisis: Unraveling the impacts and policy responses in low- and middle- income countries. IFPRI podcast. 

Header image: Farm workers in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya, use a tractor-powered shelling machine to process dry maize husks into cobs and kernels. The country’s production of maize and other staples could be slowed by high fertilizer prices, modeling shows.Photo by Jen Watson/Shutterstock