Copenhagen and Beyond

The journey that has taken agriculture from bit player to significant presence in climate change negotiations continues apace. The Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) has been instrumental in bringing forestry and concerns about forest degradation to the negotiations. More recent efforts by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, and others have highlighted the full range of agricultural issues.

Barely mentioned at the December 2008 Poznan meetings of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), agriculture was explicitly recognized in the June UNFCCC negotiating text. Continued efforts to ensure that specific agricultural adaptation and mitigation measures remain on the agenda in Copenhagen in December, whether or not agreement is reached, are critical for the future of millions of rural people in developing countries.

In early 2009, IFPRI researchers worked with an international group of experts to recommend agricultural adaptation and mitigation options and lay out the synergies between the two in a series of briefs that complement publications from CIFOR, FAO and the World Agroforestry Centre.

“Reducing deforestation and forest degradation is key to slowing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” stresses Markku Kanninen, principal scientist at CIFOR and organizer of Forestry Day at Copenhagen. “But cost-effective reduction of emissions can also be achieved through improved farming methods that build up carbon, better management of irrigation and livestock to cut methane emissions, and better fertilizer use to reduce nitrous oxide emissions.”

Wendy Mann, senior advisor and coordinator of FAO delegations to the climate change negotiations, adds that FAO’s February 2009 submission to the UNFCCC emphasizes (1) formulating an agricultural initiative similar to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, or REDD, to test measurable, reportable and verifiable payment schemes; (2) establishing a range of funding and delivery mechanisms to realize agricultural mitigation potential; and (3) a more comprehensive approach to integrating soil carbon sequestration into the scope of land use, land use change and forestry accounting; the Clean Development Mechanism; and other financial compensation mechanisms.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Chair Rajendra Pachauri and UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer are among the key players who agree that adaptation in agriculture is essential. But how can adaptation needs be met, with or without a Copenhagen agreement?

Investing in food security and adaptation

“A work plan that includes immediate and significant funding is necessary to ensure that climate change adaptation gets underway in 2010,” stresses IFPRI senior research fellow Gerald Nelson. “We will release estimates of the agricultural adaptation costs in early October, but our preliminary findings suggest that costs are substantially higher than earlier estimates. Fortunately, adaptation investments will also contribute to food security. In other words, any expenditure on food security is also an investment in climate change adaptation.”

“There are three key categories of adaptation activity that can begin immediately,” says Bruce Campbell, director of the CGIAR’s Challenge Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security. “They are improved and better-coordinated research, systematic global information and data collection and dissemination, and strengthened knowledge of local conditions that can be shared among areas with similar environments.”

The CGIAR and others are already working on gene discovery and improving plant tolerance for heat, drought, and submergence, but much basic research and field testing remains to be done. Furthermore, research to build agricultural resilience to climate change suffers from poor coordination globally.

A set of research and test sites covering all current agroclimatic zones around the globe could be used to test crop germplasm under widely varying conditions and explore the potential for new crop varieties and management systems under future climate scenarios. Coordinating efforts with national research sites using a common set of data management protocols could lay the foundation. Existing CGIAR and national sites could form the core, with new locations added to ensure that management techniques and germplasm resources are subjected to the widest possible range of climates. In addition, regular and repeated observations of the earth’s surface are critical for clarifying important connections between agricultural productivity and forest degradation.

Some of the tools for facilitating agricultural adaptation are already in the hands of individual researchers, research institutions, data centers and genebanks around the world. Improved information sharing will allow, for instance, far-flung regions to share information on management systems that perform well in one location today and may be critical to farmers elsewhere after 20 years of climate change. Creative collection mechanisms by which individuals contribute unique data from their global positioning system units, cell phones, and digital cameras can offer powerful, cost-effective synergies when combined with data collected using traditional methods, providing open-source information.

Agriculture is intensely local and requires in-depth knowledge of biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. “It is essential that we work with farmers in the developing world to learn from their knowledge of managing agriculture and its interactions with local climate,” says Rodney Cooke, director of the Technical Advisory Division of the International Fund for Agricultural Development. However, as Mark Holderness of the Global Forum on Agricultural Research points out, “In many parts of the world, national research and extension systems lack the human and physical resources to acquire information and translate it into locally useful products.”

Investment in laboratory scientists is badly needed, as are partnerships joining national systems and international centers. Within countries, agricultural extension services that specifically address climate change adaptation include those disseminating local cultivars of drought-tolerant crop varieties, teaching improved management systems and gathering information to facilitate national research work.

“Farmer networks can be effective information-sharing mechanisms and have the potential to provide cost-effective links between government efforts and farmer activities,” points out Nora Ourabah, senior policy officer at the International Federation of Agricultural Producers.  

As extreme weather will likely increase with climate change, countries already vulnerable to natural disasters have a wealth of knowledge on how to respond. Lessons learned in drought-prone Ethiopia and flood-prone Bangladesh could prove invaluable in other parts of the world as climate changes. Proactive information exchange and preparation will save money and lives, and organizations that are active in disaster relief will play important roles.

Information exchange should emphasize those adaptations that also mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and promote sustainable development. Conservation tillage helps soil retain water, small irrigation facilities conserve water, and agroforestry systems improve the storage of both carbon and water—and all have significant mitigation potential.

Success in building resilience among vulnerable farmers in developing countries demands long-term support from the international community, close collaboration among stakeholders working on agriculture and climate change, and committed funding. A work plan must emerge from Copenhagen that delineates specific agricultural adaptation and mitigation activities and how to acquire funding. Three events there will focus on agriculture: an FAO-sponsored event on December 10, Agriculture and Rural Development Day on December 12 (hosted by the Faculty of Life Sciences at the University of Copenhagen), and Forest Day on December 13. This combined effort promises to formulate a comprehensive program for climate change and agriculture beyond Copenhagen.