In Kaffrine, Senegal, farmers have time-honored ways of predicting when the weather will change. They know that a good rainy season is imminent when they see unusual quantities of snakes and frogs, a shooting star coming from a particular direction, or heavy rains preceded by strong wind and dark clouds.
A project developed to explain seasonal forecasting to local farmers has shown that building bridges between traditional and scientific knowledge can provide valuable impacts when it comes to climate adaptation. Both approaches have much to offer and each can benefit the other.
While some of the methods used by farmers in Kaffrine rely on coincidental events, such as shooting stars, others are based on fact. A report on the project explains that animals such as snakes and frogs sense the arrival of the warm and humid southwesterly wind that takes the place of northerly dry and hot winds and ushers in the monsoon.
The initiative to bring Senegalese farmers together with climatologists, developed by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and partners including the Senegalese National Meteorological Agency, the Agriculture Extension Service, and many farmers groups, was showcased at the Hunger, Nutrition, Climate Justice conference, held in Dublin, Ireland from April 15-16. Also featured in a blog by conference co-organizers CCAFS and in a collection of posts from the Dublin event, the case study was presented as an example of how knowledge can help combat hunger, food security and climate injustice. And how indigenous knowledge can be mobilized for positive change.
Valuable synergies
Harnessing synergy between traditional and scientific knowledge systems, the project has helped farmers in central Senegal’s peanut growing belt to use seasonal forecasts as a tool for improving crop strategies. It has also provided an opportunity for farmers to explain to meteorologists what seasonal climate information they most needed. As a result, the forecasts have been repackaged to suit local needs.
A key lesson to emerge from the exercise was that traditional knowledge can learn from science, and that science can learn from traditional knowledge. The innovative project, organized through a series of workshops and field visits, was careful to respect local weather forecasting systems, which have been handed down through generations. Team leaders made sure they involved farmers in discussions rather than dictating to them. When talking about the monsoon, they told farmers that a satellite was now available which made it possible to monitor as far away as the Gulf of Guinea, enabling forecasters to predict when the rainy season was likely to develop.
Farmers proved receptive to information presented in this manner. As climate change brings less predictable rainfall patterns, they have been finding it difficult to keep pace with rapid changes using their traditional practices and knowledge systems.
When communicated in accessible and comprehensible ways, seasonal climate forecasts provided valuable knowledge that helped farmers make important decisions about which crops to grow and when to plant.
Results showed that farmers who took into account a science-based seasonal forecast for the 2011 rainy season – which predicted ‘wet to normal’ conditions rather than the ‘very wet’ conditions of the previous season – were able to plan better than farmers who simply adopted the previous year’s strategy.
Explaining the concept of probability was more of a challenge. But this community, which strongly believes that only God is infallible, was ready to accept that even science can make mistakes and that no forecast is ever totally reliable. The team also introduced farmers to technical aspects of weather forecasting, translating difficult terms into concepts they could readily relate to.
Adapting forecasts to farmers’ needs
But this was very much a two-way process, and when it came to selecting the specific information needs of farmers, their input proved invaluable.
A forecast that provides the total amount of rainfall is not enough, farmers observed. They pointed to other information that would be more helpful, most crucially the date when the rainy season could be expected to start. For them, this would be the most valuable piece of information, since all their farm management systems revolved around this critical moment in the calendar.
That observation led to a major change in the way the National Meteorological Agency presents its seasonal forecast information for farmers, not just in Kaffrine, but throughout Senegal.
Discussion about the most effective channels to communicate forecasts revealed that men liked rural radio while women preferred more personal contact. As a result, a decision was taken to work out a mix of the two approaches. A system has been developed to deliver the information both through rural radio, with journalists trained in climate forecasting, and via the local agricultural extension agent, who is now a contact point between the team of meteorologists and local farmers.
The scope of the initiative has been broadened and farmers now recognize that climate knowledge alone will not produce good results. They also need access to good fertilizer, seed and insurance, and suppliers have been brought in to discuss farmer needs and how they can be met.
Behind the success is a relationship built on mutual trust and respect. In a guest blog for CCAFS, Ousmane Ndiaye of the Senegal National Meteorological Agency recounts how he took care to involve farmers in discussion, rather than talk down to them. He told them that science-based weather forecasts used some of their indicators too.
“Our only difference is we use better tools, a better observing system and more systemized reporting,” he reported telling the farmers. “I mentioned observing through satellites, our network of sharing information around the world, our capacity of storing and analyzing data using computers. You could see their readiness to listen in their attentive eyes.”
More information:
Communicating seasonal forecasts to farmers in Kaffrine, Senegal for better agricultural management
(Ndiaye, O, Moussa, AS, Seck, M, Zougmore, R, Hansen, J)
Putting climate forecasts into farmers’ hands (CCAFS)
Following up on last year’s climate forecast workshop – what happened next? (CCAFS)
Innovation matchmaking links climate innovators (CCAFS)
Hunger, Nutrition, Climate Justice conference (Irish Aid)
Delivery models for climate information in East and West Africa (Jost, C)
Investigating climate information services through a gendered lens (McOmber, C, Panikowski, A, McKune, S, Bartels, W, Russo, S)
Featured image: Farmer workshop in climate information, Kaffrine, Senegal. Photo: J. Hansen (CCAFS)